No. 18 USC has a four-step path to potentially make the College Football Playoff.
No. 9 Notre Dame faces a crucial game against Pittsburgh that could secure a playoff berth.
The matchup between No. 10 Oklahoma and No. 4 Alabama is a likely elimination game for the Sooners.
For No. 18 Southern California, making the College Football Playoff could be as easy as one, two, three, four.
Step one: Win on Saturday against Iowa. Step two: Pull off an upset of No. 6 Oregon in Autzen Stadium the following week. Step three: Beat UCLA to end the regular season. Step four: Pray that No. 17 Michigan beats No. 1 Ohio State.
This would likely leave the Trojans ahead of the Buckeyes and Wolverines in the Big Ten standings by virtue of a higher conference opponent winning percentage, earning a matchup with Indiana to decide the Big Ten championship.
In this scenario, USC would have the strongest case for being the third Big Ten team in the 12-team playoff field. Beyond finishing second in the second-best conference in the Bowl Subdivision, the Trojans would have wins against Michigan and Oregon along with competitive losses to Illinois and No. 9 Notre Dame.
Everything is easier said than done — for starters, USC hasn’t won five league games in a row during an unabbreviated season since 2017. But for the first time as members of the Big Ten, the Trojans are playing meaningful games in November.
USC leads the USA TODAY Sports preview of the team, game, coach and quarterback facing the most pressure in Week 12 of the regular season:
Team: No. 9 Notre Dame
Pittsburgh is the biggest hurdle Notre Dame will face in securing a return trip to the playoff. The Panthers have rebounded after a dismal close to last season to become one of five ACC teams in this week’s playoff rankings, and with three weeks left in November have a chance at playing for the conference crown for the second time under coach Pat Narduzzi.
Saturday’s result will have a profound impact on the ACC by helping to decide whether the conference sends one or two teams into the tournament. One team that will be watching closely is No. 16 Miami, which stands six spots behind the Fighting Irish in the playoff rankings despite the head-to-head win to open the regular season. The Hurricanes end the year against the Panthers.
Given games against Syracuse and Stanford to close November, a win on Saturday could essentially clinch an at-large berth for the Irish. But a loss could put Miami back on track for the playoff even without reaching the ACC championship game; as of now, the Hurricanes have a narrow path to Charlotte, North Carolina, because of losses to Louisville and SMU.
Game: No. 10 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama
It’s likely an elimination game for the Sooners and a possible clincher for the Crimson Tide, who can lock down an appearance in the conference championship game by scoring their fifth win against a ranked SEC opponent.
Another storyline heading into Saturday is the growing Heisman Trophy argument for quarterback Ty Simpson, who has 23 touchdowns against one interception during Alabama’s eight-game winning streak. Simpson and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza are the current favorites in one of the most unsettled Heisman races in recent history.
But the pressure is really on Oklahoma, last seen capturing a vital road win against No. 20 Tennessee to remain on the fringes of the at-large race. With wins against the Tide, Missouri and LSU, the Sooners would place themselves in position to become the fifth or even sixth SEC team in the bracket, depending on what happens in the ACC and Big Ten.
Any chance of scoring the upset as roughly a touchdown underdog depends on the play of a defense that leads the SEC in yards allowed per game and per play. Given the Tide’s lack of balance — the offense ranks eighth in the Power Four in yards per pass attempt but averages just 3.5 yads per carry — Oklahoma coach Brent Venables might be able to orchestrate a scheme that delivers the program’s biggest win as a member of the SEC.
Coach: Mike Norvell, Florida State
After a listless loss to Clemson left Florida State ahead of only Syracuse and Boston College in the ACC, a home game against Virginia Tech could decide whether the administration has the stomach — and the bank account — to pay Mike Norvell’s approximately $59 million buyout and reboot the program.
If so, that buyout would be the second-largest in college football history, coming in behind the $76.8 million Texas A&M paid Jimbo Fisher.
The loss to the Tigers dropped Norvell to 37-32 overall in Tallahassee and just 6-15 since the start of last year. Instead of an aberration, a two-win 2024 season has yielded only a slightly improved performance that could leave FSU short of bowl eligibility in back-to-back years for just the second time since Bobby Bowden assumed leadership of the program in 1976.
That both of those two-season droughts have come under Norvell is impossible to ignore, even if his 2020 and 2021 seasons were impacted by the mess left by his two predecessors and the pandemic.
Quarterback: Arch Manning, Texas
The No. 10 Longhorns’ season is on the line against No. 5 Georgia, in the third meeting between these two teams since Texas arrived in the SEC two seasons ago.
Winning in Athens could be the spark the Longhorns need for an at-large berth almost regardless of what happens in the Black Friday rivalry with No. 3 Texas A&M. At the end of the regular season, Texas could have the résumé to become the first three-loss team to reach the playoff.
Manning holds the key, as always. Despite intense scrutiny and an uneven start, the first-year starter has put together a strong debut and even outplayed several preseason favorites, including Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Florida’s DJ Lagway and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier.
In recent wins against Mississippi State and No. 14 Vanderbilt, Manning has completed a combined 54 of 79 attempts for 674 yards with six touchdowns and one interception. Texas topped 400 yards of offense in back-to-back games for the first time this year.
Against the backdrop of this must-have matchup, Manning has the opportunity to recast his season in a different, much more positive light — as a successful first step that lays the groundwork for a Heisman run in 2026.
