Plenty of bettors nationwide have lofty expectations for the upcoming fight between Jake Paul and Mike Tyson. But what do the sportsbooks think?
The bout is, to say the least, a unique case. It is sanctioned by the Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation (TDLR), but some gaming officials have questioned the legitimacy of the fight. It will be scored like a real fight, but some rules, including length of rounds (two minutes instead of three) and glove weight (14 ounces instead of 10) are not standard.
Regardless, at least one sportsbook anticipates Tyson-Paul to deliver an unprecedented volume of bets.
‘I expect Tyson vs. Paul to be the most-bet-on boxing match in BetMGM history,’ BetMGM senior trader Alex Rella said. ‘This is the rare fight that transcends different demographics: Tyson supporters, old-school boxing fans that may have tuned out in recent years, Jake Paul haters and casual sports fans that want to be included in the conversation.’
Paul already owns the No. 2 spot for most-bet boxing matches at BetMGM after his decision victory over Nate Diaz. And, as Rella put it, ‘Diaz isn’t Tyson.’
The other aspect to consider is where the public money lies. People might be surprised to learn it isn’t with the 27-year-old who has a 10-1 professional record.
A staggering 80% of bets, including 73% of money, are on the 58-year-old Tyson to win, per BetMGM. Tyson is considered a +170 underdog, although that number has moved from +240.
‘I believe the public money is on Tyson for two reasons,’ Rella told USA TODAY Sports. ‘The first is obvious: Tyson is one of the all-time greats and one of the most popular fighters ever. Even at his age now, he has this aura that few fighters ever had. The second reason, many people have been rooting for Jake Paul to get violently knocked out for quite some time. Paul is a polarizing character, and people back that up with betting.’
In terms of payouts, and given the vast majority of money on the other side, BetMGM will be rooting for Paul (-210) to win.
At least six states have prohibited placing wagers on the fight, with some citing concerns with its legitimacy.
“We just consider it an untraditional boxing event that’s more of an exhibition,’’ Richard McGarvey, spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board, told USA TODAY Sports. “We just said, ‘Not in Pennsylvania.’ ‘
In addition to Pennsylvania, officials in New York, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana and Vermont will also turn away bettors.
‘This fight is fully sanctioned,’ Rella said, ‘so we are expecting a legitimate fight. Since this is a unique situation, our compliance department has reached out individually to each state gambling regulator to get clear directions. A few states did decline, so we are not offering it everywhere.’
Still, for those who can get in on the action, Rella said the majority of people with money on the fight have a clear goal in mind.
‘Bettors want to see Paul get knocked out.’
Josh Peter contributed to this story.
