Super Bowl 58 is set, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers advancing from Sunday’s conference championship games. But for 30 NFL teams, the ‘offseason’ is already well into high gear. And with the regular season itself lengthening, the draft seemingly bends around the corner more quickly than ever.
The 2024 ‘Player Selection Meeting,’ which will be held in Detroit this April, should not only be top-heavy with blue chippers but also with the quarterback prospects everyone loves to parse and debate in various NFL mock drafts. (And could this be the third draft since 2018 with at least five passers taken in Round 1?)
A lot to figure out before the draft commences – like the final order, to say nothing of the combine, free agency, pro days and more – but here’s our latest first-round, 2024 NFL mock draft prognostication:
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): QB Caleb Williams, USC
For the second straight offseason – they traded last year’s No. 1 pick – the Bears have an opportunity to significantly improve themselves. In 2023, they opted to keep QB Justin Fields and dealt down. But this time? It feels like the play is to take Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner with the electric arm, and trade Fields, who is the superior dual-threat QB. Though moving the selection would doubtless return greater value, Williams’ ability as a passer seems too tantalizing – and it’s not like he can’t make plays with this, legs, especially in the red zone. (Williams accounted for 120 touchdowns, rushing or passing, in three collegiate seasons.) The hiring of OC Shane Waldron, who’s largely coached pocket passers with the Rams and Seahawks in recent years, also seems like a signal Chicago is about to make a change. And resetting your quarterback’s contract to a half-dozen years of contractual control would allow GM Ryan Poles and HC Matt Eberflus to continue investing heavily elsewhere in the roster.
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2. Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
Fairly or not, seems like a franchise reboot will extend to the offense after the Sam Howell rollercoaster rose and fell with 21 TD passes but a league-high 21 INTs in 2023 – this organization’s latest (seemingly) failed attempt to find an answer behind center. And for a team that toils an hour away from Lamar Jackson’s typical heroics, why wouldn’t you be tempted by 2023 Heisman winner Daniels, who passed for 40 TDs and nearly 4,000 yards last season while rushing for 10 scores and more than 1,100 electric yards.
3. New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Well, Bill Belichick didn’t leave them empty-handed, this selection the highest the Pats have had since taking QB Drew Bledsoe No. 1 overall in 1993. Like Chicago, feels like New England should move on from a quarterback taken in Round 1 just three years ago – and it appears like a much more clear-cut decision, even if the deck definitely seemed stacked against Mac Jones at times. Maye’s passing production dipped from 2022 to 2023, but his size (6-4, 229), arm and mobility are doubtless going to draw (unfair) comparisons to Josh Allen … which might even influence New England’s regime just a tad given what the Buffalo star has put the Patriots through in recent years.
4. Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Arguably the best player in this draft, the 2023 Biletnikoff winner and two-time All American with the Hall of Fame bloodlines has averaged better than 1,200 receiving yards and 14 TDs over the past two seasons. Harrison might be the best product issuing from what seems like a Buckeyes receiving assembly line. And, even if speedster Marquise Brown re-signs in Arizona, it likely wouldn’t take Harrison long to emerge as QB Kyler Murray’s No. 1 target, something he didn’t really have from the wideout position following the departure of DeAndre Hopkins.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
At this point in time – which is to say inordinately early, even by standards of the pre-draft process – the mysteries appear to deepen at this juncture of the draft. On one hand, talented as the Bolts seem, they’ve got plentiful issues to address. On the other, who knows what new coach Jim Harbaugh – and whomever the team brings on as general manager (probably Joe Hortiz) – are going to prioritize in terms of talent acquisition, cap management and more? Yet it seems evident that supporting franchise QB Justin Herbert is going to be at the top of the list. WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both have durability issues and 2024 cap hits exceeding $30 million, each entering the final year of his contract – meaning both could be goners ahead of schedule. Quentin Johnston, a first-rounder last year, obviously has potential but also comes off an awfully quiet rookie season. Enter Odunze, who has similar size (6-3, 215) to Johnston but far more production in his final college season (92 catches, for 1,640 yards, 13 TDs). Probably not an easier way to replicate the formula of giving Herbert twin tower wideouts … but at a fraction of the cost.
6. New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers, LSU
Daniels’ primary target the past two seasons in Baton Rouge, Nabers really blossomed during a 2023 All-American campaign when he caught 89 balls for 1,569 yards and 14 TDs. He’d slot in nicely to a Giants offense that hasn’t had a legitimate No. 1 target since fellow former Bayou Bengal Odell Beckham Jr. was traded following the 2018 season. Big Blue hasn’t even had an 800-yard receiver since.
7. Tennessee Titans: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
GM Ran Carthon took an offensive lineman (Peter Skoronski) last year during his first draft. It would be perfectly logical to replicate that move for a team still trying to fill Taylor Lewan’s void – and after a season when rookie QB Will Levis endured his fair share of abuse. New HC Brian Callahan could certainly vouch for taking a player of Alt’s caliber after watching Joe Burrow repeatedly buried for years behind Cincinnati’s suspect line.
8. Atlanta Falcons: OLB Dallas Turner, Alabama
Quarterback is the glaring issue for new HC Raheem Morris and this team to solve. For now, let’s assume that doesn’t mean settling for the fourth passer off the board in April. And it’s not like this defense doesn’t need attention given its struggles to generate pressure in recent seasons and pending exits of leading sack men Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree. Turner was the Co-Defensive Player of the Year in the SEC last season while racking up 10 sacks and could easily occupy Dupree’s spot.
9. Bears: CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
Chicago could go in any number of directions with its second pick depending on how the board falls, including perhaps a receiver or lineman who could directly benefit Caleb Williams. However the Bears could also use help at corner – perhaps especially so if negotiations with unsigned Jaylon Johnson go sideways.
10. New York Jets: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
Legitimate case they should take the best available left tackle to safeguard QB Aaron Rodgers’ back (and Achilles). But legitimate case they should get AR8 one of the draft’s premier weapons with the game-breaking, two-time All-America and two-time Mackey Award winner. Despite being limited by an ankle injury for a good chunk of the 2023 season, Bowers had 26 TD catches during his three-year college career and averaged nearly 60 grabs for 850 yards as the rare player at his position who could dominate a game offensively. The Jets sure could use that in their passing game … even if, say, WR Davante Adams and LT Tyron Smith end up on the roster before the draft even begins.
11. Minnesota Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Will the Vikes re-sign Kirk Cousins, 35? Even if they do, wouldn’t it be wise to take a page from the division rival Pack’s playbook and get his successor into the building? McCarthy won big in college (27-1 record) while developing into an accurate passer who rarely mad bad decisions, all traits that will make NFL evaluators take notice. Yet the 21-year-old, who was greatly assisted by the Wolverines’ defense and run game, could certainly benefit from apprenticing behind a pro like Cousins.
12. Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix, Oregon
Time was, it was unusual to see five quarterbacks in Round 1 of a given draft. But time was, it was unusual for a team to trade a boatload of picks for a veteran quarterback, grant him a $240+ million extension, then give up on him two years later. But it seems that’s where Denver currently is. Nix appears to have significantly more upside than journeyman placeholder Jarrett Stidham, not to mention the accuracy – nearly 75% in two seasons with the Ducks – Broncos coach Sean Payton values, plus having a nose for the goal line (38 rushing TDs in five college seasons).
13. Las Vegas Raiders: DE Jared Verse, Florida State
A team now coached by a linebacker can probably expect a little more focus on its defense. Also, imagine how effective Maxx Crosby might be if there was someone offenses had to account for opposite him?
14. New Orleans Saints: OL Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
There used to be fewer higher priorities in the Big Easy than O-line, especially the interior. Massive Fuaga (6-6, 334) could bolster the inside blocking immediately and perhaps shift out to his more familiar right tackle post over time.
15. Indianapolis Colts: WR Brian Thomas Jr., LSU
If a team that historically doesn’t use the franchise tag loses WR Michael Pittman Jr. to free agency, what better way to replace him than with a player who has a similar build (6-4, 200) yet might have superior downfield burst – potentially allowing Thomas to better leverage QB Anthony Richardson’s deep arm.
16. Seattle Seahawks: DT Byron Murphy II, Texas
This team got trucked trying to defend the run last season … and that was despite the trade for pending free agent Leonard Williams that bore little fruit.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
Getting the All-America blocker here would be a bargain. It would also be an upgrade given the penal cost-to-reliability ratio the Jags have endured with incumbent LT Cam Robinson.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: WR Troy Franklin, Oregon
He’s got size (6-3, 190) and elite speed, attributes that could nicely complement Cincy WR Ja’Marr Chase … especially given Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are headed for the open market.
19. Los Angeles Rams: CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
Look who’s scheduled to make their first Round 1 selection since selecting QB Jared Goff atop the 2016 draft. When you’re not particularly good at defending the pass or pilfering them, opting for a talented corner seems like a the right way to end this drought.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: OT JC Latham, Alabama
A recently neglected line would have a nice pair of long-term bookends by coupling Latham with last year’s first-rounder, Broderick Jones.
21. Miami Dolphins: DE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
No team is ever satisfied with its supply of pass rushers, especially one that lost Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips to major late-season leg injuries.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
An aging set of corners is just one reason this defense degraded so badly so quickly.
23. Houston Texans (from Cleveland Browns): DT Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois
For this defense to truly live up to HC DeMeco Ryans’ standards, it needs to bolster its depth along the line.
24. Dallas Cowboys: OT Jordan Morgan, Arizona
Even if Tyron Smith is re-signed, it likely wouldn’t be for long. One of the final All-Pac-12 performers, Morgan would bring youth to Dallas’ front while giving the team the option of keeping Tyler Smith at guard, where the former college left tackle has performed very well.
25. Green Bay Packers: OL Troy Fautanu, Washington
An interior upgrade to better set QB Jordan Love’s pocket and/or potentially brittle LT David Bakhtiari’s successor.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Missouri
Carlton Davis III’s recent play and $14 million salary in 2024 could make him a financial target if the Bucs can slot in a comparable replacement.
27. Cardinals (from Texans): DE Bralen Trice, Washington
One of the league’s worst defenses would gladly welcome a player who can both generate pressure and set an edge.
28. Buffalo Bills: CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
An older secondary is also one likely to be purged during free agency.
29. Detroit Lions: DE Chop Robinson, Penn State
Aidan Hutchinson was their only feared pass rusher in 2023. Another All-Big Ten selection could change that … with a touch of seasoning.
30. Baltimore Ravens: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
A bigger target – Coleman is roughly 6-4, 215 pounds – could be what Jackson needs entering an offseason when OBJ and Nelson Agholor are out of contract.
x-31. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
A two-time All-SEC cover guy could be made to order if K.C. can’t afford to re-sign L’Jarius Sneed.
x-32. San Francisco 49ers: OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
They got by without departed RT Mike McGlinchey in 2023 yet could almost certainly do better.
x-Super Bowl 58 winner will draft 32nd
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.
