Every week for the duration of the 2023 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide real-time updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Thursday’s game or Saturday’s, if applicable).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 7.
Here’s where things stand with Week 15 of the 2023 season underway:
NFC playoff picture
x – 1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3), NFC West leaders: They became the first team to clinch a berth courtesy of the Packers’ loss Monday night. With wins in hand against the Eagles and Cowboys, the Niners had previously moved into the top seed following Dallas’ Week 14 defeat of Philadelphia. Next up, Arizona – a team the Niners have beaten three times in a row. A win in the desert (or a Rams loss) would officially wrap up the division for Kyle Shanahan’s crew. Remaining schedule: at Cardinals, vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams
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2. Dallas Cowboys (10-3), NFC East leaders: With a 15th consecutive home win, they wrested first place from Philadelphia. However, ‘America’s Team’ will give it back if the Eagles win out given the tiebreakers will revert to Philly’s favor due to the way the schedule unfolds − and Dallas’ remaining games are no cakewalk. Still, a win in Orchard Park on Sunday officially puts the Cowboys into the field … as do a bevy of scenarios that involve various NFC teams losing. Remaining schedule: at Bills, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders
3. Detroit Lions (10-4), NFC North leaders: Big get-right Saturday, the Lions pummeling Denver 42-17 a few hours after Minnesota lost in Cincinnati. A loss by Seattle on Monday will clinch a playoff spot for Detroit, but that could also come Sunday if the Rams lose in conjunction with at least one other NFC team. One more win secures the Lions’ first-ever NFC North title. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, at Cowboys, vs. Vikings
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7), NFC South leaders: Week 14’s win at Atlanta vaulted the Bucs to the top of the division thanks to a very slim lead over the Falcons in the common-games tiebreaker given their season split and identical 3-1 mark in NFC South games. Still, hardly time to relax given both Atlanta and New Orleans are also 6-7. Remaining schedule: at Packers, vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, at Panthers
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3), wild card No. 1: Their loss at Dallas knocked them from first place in the conference to fifth. However win out, against a very manageable schedule, and the reigning NFC champs will again be kings of the NFC East. A seemingly tired bunch could benefit from an extra day off ahead of Week 15’s Monday nighter at Seattle. Beat the Seahawks, and the Eagles are definitely going back to the playoffs – though they’ll clinch before kickoff if the right combo of teams lose over the weekend. Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-7), wild card No. 2: Heartbreaking loss at Cincinnati doesn’t cost them any ground … for now. However, entering Saturday, the Vikes could have won out and claimed the NFC North crown given their pair of upcoming dates with Detroit. They’ve lost that pathway. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions
7. Green Bay Packers (6-7), wild card No. 3: They retain the conference’s final wild-card spot despite seeing their three-game winning streak come to an end Monday against the Giants. No margin for error amid a cluster of 6-7 teams, the Pack’s defeat of the Rams and 4-4 record in conference games presently serving them well in the tiebreaker department. Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears
8. Los Angeles Rams (6-7), out of playoff field: Tough loss in Baltimore a week ago, but they’re still knocking on the door …. though the Week 9 loss at Green Bay without QB Matthew Stafford could ultimately hurt quite a bit. Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders, vs. Saints, at Giants, at 49ers
9. Seattle Seahawks (6-7), out of playoff field: That’s five defeats in their past six outings, their latest loss at San Francisco coming with QB1 Geno Smith unable to play. Dropping both games to the Rams could be a lingering issue. And they’re only ahead of Atlanta by virtue of a very slim lead in NFC games, Seattle’s 5-5 mark a half-game better. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-7), out of playoff field: They plummeted from fourth in the conference after losing at home to the Bucs. But the NFC South remains eminently winnable. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints
11. New Orleans Saints (6-7), out of playoff field: They didn’t make up any ground despite blowing out the Panthers. But the NFC South remains eminently winnable. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants, at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons
AFC playoff picture
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3), AFC North leaders: The first AFC club to 10 wins, they retain the conference’s top spot after Miami was upset by Tennessee on Monday. Baltimore’s next three contests will come against division leaders. But thanks to Saturday’s outcomes − losses by Denver and Pittsburgh – the Ravens need to simply win Sunday night at Jacksonville to lock up the AFC’s first berth. Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers
2. Miami Dolphins (9-4), AFC East leaders: Penal loss to the Titans on Monday cost them opportunity to move back atop the conference and dropped them to 6-3 in AFC games (same as Baltimore). The Fins’ Week 9 loss to Kansas City also means they can’t afford to let the Chiefs catch up to them. Still, win out, and they clinch home field and the bye. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5), AFC West leaders: A 6-2 record in AFC games and wins over Miami and Jacksonville keep K.C. viable to play a sixth consecutive AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. Week 14’s loss to Buffalo was damaging to that aim, but the final four games shouldn’t be. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), AFC South leaders: On the plus side, QB Trevor Lawrence was able to play through his ankle injury last weekend and survived the game. Even better, on a day when the Jags lost, so did their closest division pursuers, Houston and Indianapolis. But two setbacks in six days pretty much eliminates any hopes of home-field advantage. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans
5. Cleveland Browns (8-5), wild card No. 1: Things are looking up by Lake Erie. The Browns not only vanquished the Jaguars, they gladly settled on their new QB1, deserving Joe Flacco, for the rest of the season. Win or lose Sunday, Cleveland will remain locked into the fifth seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears, at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), wild card No. 2: QB2 Jake Browning’s impressive performances the past three weeks, including Saturday’s furious comeback against Minnesota, have them back in the projected postseason field – at least temporarily. Still, a winless mark (0-4) against the division and 3-6 record in conference matchups will likely be tough to overcome in the tiebreaker department. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs. Browns
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6), wild card No. 3: Beating Pittsburgh was as huge a win for them as it was a loss for the Steelers. Indy is currently behind Cincinnati due to its Week 14 loss to the Bengals. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans
8. Houston Texans (7-6), out of playoff field: Rough loss to the New York Jets in Week 14, primarily so due to rookie QB C.J. Stroud landing in concussion protocol – an injury that will keep him out in Nashville. A 4-4 record in AFC competition keeps them this high … for whatever it’s worth at this juncture, when wider tiebreakers can take precedence with so many compressed teams. Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts
9. Buffalo Bills (7-6), out of playoff field: Despite all the adversity, on and off the field, there’s a strong heartbeat here – especially after knocking off the Chiefs at Arrowhead again. And Buffalo started turning its recent wins into playoff progress Saturday, moving head of Denver and Pittsburgh in the overall AFC standings − just a half-game back of Houston in the tiebreaker formula (AFC record) for eighth place. Yet the division crown is again a possibility if the Bills can sweep Miami and get a little help. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7), out of playoff field: Their three-game losing streak may permanently disqualify them – head-to-head losses to Houston and Indianapolis also quite problematic, which also sums up their issues under center. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens
11. Denver Broncos (7-7), out of playoff field: They got run out of the building Saturday night, resembling an early season version of themselves devoid of playoff hope. A win would have vaulted the Broncos into the AFC’s third wild-card spot. Now? A 4-5 record in AFC games parks them behind Pittsburgh … and in danger of falling further. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders
x – clinched playoff berth
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