The time is now to prove you belong in the NCAA Tournament.
Conference championship week is the last opportunity teams on the fringe of making March Madness to show they should be in the bracket, resulting in a very tense final few days before Selection Sunday. Every team on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament will play this week.
The tournament picture is already shifting as some teams began action Tuesday, March 10, including a candidate that played for a chance to earn the automatic bid and send ripple effects to the rest of the field. Here are the teams on the bubble in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology as the clock inches closer to midnight.
Missouri
Record: 20-11 (10-8)
NET Ranking: 60
Quad 1 record: 5-6
Projected seed: No. 11
Quality wins: vs. Florida, at Kentucky, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Tennessee
Bad losses: at Notre Dame, at Mississippi, at LSU
Next game: vs. Kentucky/LSU winner (Thursday, SEC tournament second round)
Missouri has slipped, not feeling as secure as it was a few weeks ago thanks to two straight losses to end the regular season. The Tigers are more safe than others, but they do have to worry about that high NET ranking when it comes to comparing with other resumes. At least a win in the SEC tournament should be enough to secure a spot.
Miami Ohio
Record: 31-0 (18-0)
NET Ranking: 55
Quad 1 record: 0-0
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: vs. Akron
Bad losses: none
The still undefeated RedHawks remain one of the most polarizing teams in the country, as there’s much debate on whether they still need the automatic berth. Regardless, Miami can put all of it to bed by winning three more games and claim the MAC title.
Next game: vs. UMass (Thursday, MAC tournament quarterfinals)
SMU
Record: 20-12 (8-10)
NET Ranking: 39
Quad 1 record: 4-8
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: vs. North Carolina, vs. Louisville
Bad losses: vs. LSU (neutral), at Syracuse
The Mustangs are no longer safe for the NCAA Tournament with a four-game losing streak to end the regular season. While three were Quad 1 losses, they were must wins and really hurt a resume that has a measly 4-4 Quad 2 mark. The skid was finally ended with a win over Syracuse to open the ACC tournament, allowing SMU to breathe. Another win against Louisville would help them breathe much more comfortably.
Next game: vs. Louisville (Wednesday, ACC tournament second round)
Santa Clara
Record: 26-8 (15-3)
NET Ranking: 38
Quad 1 record: 2-6
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: vs. Saint Mary’s (twice)
Bad losses: vs. Loyola Chicago (neutral), vs. Arizona State (neutral)
Santa Clara had a chance to dramatically shift the bracket with an upset win over Gonzaga and take the WCC title for the first time since 1993. However, the Broncos couldn’t hold on to knock down the heavyweight to secure the automatic bid. While it will have to wait, the semifinal win over Saint Mary’s was a major boost and could have been enough to secure their berth.
Indiana
Record: 18-13 (9-11)
NET Ranking: 37
Quad 1 record: 3-11
Projected seed: No. 11 (first four)
Quality wins: vs. Purdue, at UCLA
Bad losses: at Minnesota, at USC, vs. Northwestern
The Hoosiers were unable to get another Quad 1 victory, something they desperately needed with how many losses it has in the category. A 1-5 finish to the regular season is uninspiring and Indiana needs to win its second round game in the Big Ten tournament or it can kiss its March Madness hopes goodbye.
Next game: vs. Northwestern (Wednesday, Big Ten tournament second round)
Virginia Commonwealth
Record: 24-7 (15-3)
NET Ranking: 44
Quad 1 record: 1-5
Projected seed: No. 11 (First Four)
Quality wins: vs. South Florida (neutral)
Bad losses: at George Mason
It’s unfortunate a shift in the NET rankings resulted in the win at Dayton becoming a Quad 2 result instead of Quad 1 because the Rams needed another mark. The last team in the field, VCU has the most work to do of the teams projected to play in Dayton. It needs to at least make the Atlantic 10 championship game, as a loss any earlier will make it vulnerable to get leaped over by another contender.
Next game: vs. Duquesne/Rhode Island winner (Friday, Atlantic 10 tournament quarterfinals)
Cincinnati
Record: 18-14 (9-9)
NET Ranking: 46
Quad 1 record: 3-11
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. BYU
Bad losses: vs. Eastern Michigan, at Xavier
A team surging into the picture is a Cincinnati team that finished with six wins in the last eight regular-season games, with some notable victories in that span. The Bearcats have some of the best wins and worst losses, so it still has work to do. They were able to handle Utah to open the Big 12 tournament, and now must beat UCF in the next round to stay in the fight.
Next game: vs. UCF (Wednesday, Big 12 tournament second round)
West Virginia
Record: 18-13 (9-9)
NET Ranking: 58
Quad 1 record: 5-7
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. Kansas, vs. BYU
Bad losses: vs. Xavier (neutral), at Kansas State, vs. Utah
Ross Hodge’s first season in Morgantown has largely gone unnoticed, but the Mountaineers have a chance to make the tournament thanks to some other contenders faltering. Still, it’s a long road ahead considering how high the NET ranking is and some questionable losses. The only way to the tournament is beating Houston in the Big 12 quarterfinals.
Next game: vs. BYU (Wednesday, Big 12 tournament second round)
Auburn
Record: 16-15 (7-11)
NET Ranking: 40
Quad 1 record: 4-12
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. St John’s (neutral), vs. Arkansas, at Florida
Bad losses: vs. Mississippi, at Mississippi State
Another team in plenty of debate, the Tigers have fallen out of the projected field after failing to beat Alabama in the regular-season finale. Auburn has some incredible wins but so many losses, it’s going to have to make a real strong case for the selection committee to ignore it’s ugly record. At least two wins are needed.
Next game: vs. Mississippi State (Wednesday, SEC tournament first round)
Stanford
Record: 20-12 (9-9)
NET Ranking: 59
Quad 1 record: 5-6
Projected seed: First four out
Quality wins: vs. Saint Louis (neutral), vs. Louisville, vs. North Carolina
Bad losses: vs. Seattle, vs. UNLV, vs. Notre Dame, vs. Pittsburgh (neutral)
Hello and goodbye Stanford. Just as the Cardinal were entering the NCAA Tournament conversation, they immediately get taken out thanks to a last-second loss to Pittsburgh in the ACC tournament opening round. Stanford needed to win, and as a result, sees itself taken out of the March Madness picture.
Oklahoma
Record: 17-14 (7-11)
NET Ranking: 54
Quad 1 record: 3-9
Projected seed: Next out
Quality wins: at Vanderbilt
Bad losses: vs. Arizona State (neutral), at Mississippi State, at South Carolina
Stanford’s loss opens the door for another team to join the first four out, and that honor goes to Oklahoma. While the Sooners don’t have a great resume, they’ve been winning, and that’s something not many bubble teams can say. With four straight wins, Oklahoma has to extend it to at least six to move up the conversation.
Next game: vs. South Carolina (Wednesday, SEC tournament first round)
