The last undefeated team in men’s college basketball is at the center of the NCAA Tournament debate.
And while their record indicates the RedHawks should be a shoo-in for March Madness, that may not be the case. And there’s no certainty Miami wins the MAC’s automatic bid either.
The RedHawks have had plenty of close calls, and second-place Akron is no pushover. The Zips are 24-5 (15-1 in MAC), with their lone league loss to Miami by three points back on Jan. 3.
So what happens if Miami doesn’t leave Cleveland with an automatic bid?
Miami’s resume and season has perplexed the hoops world as it reignites the age-old postseason debate of best vs. deserving. The discussion intensified when former Auburn coach Bruce Pearl said the RedHawks aren’t worthy of an at-large spot.
‘If we’re selecting the 68 best teams, then Miami (Ohio) is going to have to win their tournament to qualify as a champion, because as an at-large, they are not one of the best teams in the country, and that’s going to be a difficult choice for the committee,’ he said.
Miami’s athletic director David Sayler wasn’t too impressed with Pearl’s analysis, firing back on Monday via social media.
‘(You) are flat out wrong about (Miami Ohio basketball) when (you) say we would finish last in the Big East,’ Sayler posted. ‘The disrespect is awful and (you) should not be near a TV studio covering this sport when (you) show your true colors! Even slipped in a ‘we’ when talking about Auburn, nice work!’
There are several reasons Miami should and shouldn’t be in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, it can make all of this moot by heading into Selection Sunday if it still hasn’t lost. But let’s breakdown the RedHawks’ at-large case, just in case.
Why Miami Ohio should be in NCAA Tournament
To start, it’s March and they are the only one of 365 teams that haven’t lost. Miami (Ohio) is just the fourth team in the 21st century — Wichita State (2014), Kentucky (2015) and Gonzaga (2021) — to enter March undefeated. The 29 wins are the most in Division I.
The RedHawks have the best shooting percentage at 52.7% and are eighth in 3-point percentage at 39.2%. They average 90.9 points per game, second in the country behind Alabama, an win by an average of 17 points a game, a margin that’s seventh-best in Division I.
Some models back the success. The strength of record is 21st in the country, and in the RPI, the old model used to select NCAA Tournament teams before the NET rankings, the RedHawks are No. 28.
History certainly favors Miami. No team with more than 28 wins has ever missed out on March Madness since it expanded in 1985, and the NCAA Tournament selection committee never left out a team with less than four losses. Even if the RedHawks lost the remainder of their games, they’d only have three defeats.
Why Miami Ohio shouldn’t be in NCAA Tournament
It’s the quality of resume the tournament selection primarily uses that doesn’t work in Miami’s favor.
While undefeated, the RedHawks are ranked No. 52 in the NET rankings, high for an at-large team. It’s still possible, as San Diego State was that exact ranking when it made the First Four last season.
A deeper look reveals Miami doesn’t have any Quad 1 games, and just one Quad 2 victory. A majority of the wins are Quad 4 with a 16-0 record that doesn’t include the three victories against non-Division I teams. It doesn’t help at the moment, it will not get a chance to earn a Quad 1 win by the end of the MAC title game.
The lack of quality opponents really hurts other metrics. The strength of schedule ranks 256th and Miami has a KenPom rating of 87, surrounded by teams that are virtually out of the running for an at-large spot. In KenPom, the RedHawks have a strength of schedule ranking of 285th, and a the nonconference rating is sixth-worst in Division I.
All of the variables make for one of the most polarizing bubble contenders in recent memory. Miami deserves credit for playing its schedule perfectly and should be rewarded for the amount of wins, yet it’s understandable to see why there’s a chance they can end up being left out of the tournament — no matter how unfair it is.
Miami Ohio basketball remaining schedule
Tuesday, March 3: vs. Toledo, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Friday, March 6: at Ohio, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Thursday, March 12: MAC tournament first round (vs. TBA)
Friday, March 13: MAC tournament semifinal (vs. TBA) *if advance
Saturday, March 14: MAC tournament championship (vs. TBA) *if advance
