And then there were eight.
The College Football Playoff is officially at its quarterfinal stage, with Oregon’s 51-34 victory against James Madison on Saturday night wrapping up a run of four first-round games over a 24-hour stretch.
As was the case last year with the debut of the 12-team playoff format, the first round delivered plenty of anticipation, but not a whole lot of drama. Oregon raced out to a 28-point halftime lead on its way to a 17-point win. Ole Miss throttled Tulane 41-10 in its much-hyped first game since Lane Kiffin’s sloppy departure to LSU.
In probably the most exciting game of the quartet, Alabama overcame a 17-0 second-quarter deficit to beat Oklahoma 34-24. And in a game with a combined four missed field goals on a brutally windy day, Miami knocked off Texas A&M 10-3.
The games have set off a flurry of conversations, namely a debate over the inclusion of teams from outside of the Power Four conferences in the playoff structure. At least some of that chatter, though, is over what awaits, with four matchups set on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day in some of the biggest bowl games in the sport.
What will happen in those contests? Who will see their national title dreams live on for another round?
Here’s what you can expect from the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff:
CFP quarterfinals predictions
Odds for all games are courtesy of BetMGM as of Sunday, Dec. 21
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 9 Alabama
Indiana vs Alabama odds
Spread: Indiana -7
Over/under: 48.5 points
Moneyline: Indiana -250, Alabama +200
Indiana vs Alabama predictions
Indiana 28, Alabama 17: Indiana has won 13 games this season. The Hoosiers won 13 games combined in my four years on campus. I still approach every IU game with a heavy dose of skepticism. That said, I thought Indiana would beat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, and I’ve got this feeling it might knock off another of college football’s elite. Alabama is a flawed team, and I’m trusting Curt Cignetti and coordinators Bryant Haines and Mike Shanahan to exploit them. — Matt Glenesk, USA TODAY
Indiana 27, Alabama 17: Alabama snuck its way into the 12-team CFP field after getting walloped in the SEC Championship game (to the consternation of many). The Crimson Tide were perhaps the story of the first round with their record-tying 17-point comeback to beat Oklahoma, but Alabama’s lack of a run game will catch up to the Crimson Tide vs. Indiana’s staunch defense. — Zac Al-Khateeb, USA TODAY Network
Indiana 24, Alabama 19: We all saw what happened last season when a Big Ten team with an extra week-and-a-half of rest found itself in the Rose Bowl against a talented opponent with an embattled coach coming off a much-needed first-round win. This Alabama squad isn’t last year’s Ohio State team, though. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb’s offensive ingenuity will help the Crimson Tide keep it close, but their lack of a viable and consistent run game will crush it against one of the country’s best defenses. — Craig Meyer, USA TODAY Network
Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami
Ohio State vs Miami odds
Spread: Ohio State -10
Over/under: 42.5 points
Moneyline: Ohio State -400, Miami +310
Ohio State vs Miami predictions
Ohio State 35, Miami 13: Hey, both these teams scored 10 points in their last game! There will be more points in this one… mainly from the Buckeyes. I’m just not convinced by Carson Beck (or Mario Cristobal). Miami’s D-line is nasty good, but I’m putting my faith in Julian Sayin being able to get playmakers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate the rock plenty here. — Matt Glenesk, USA TODAY
Ohio State 34, Miami 20: This is a matchup that features some of the best receiver talent in the nation in Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate and Miami’s Malachi Toney. Expect each to make some splash plays in the early running before the Buckeyes’ superior talent eventually helps them pull away in the second half. — Zac Al-Khateeb, USA TODAY Network
Ohio State 24, Miami 13: The slew of offensive options around Julian Sayin should allow Ohio State to negate Miami’s ferocious pass rush a bit with a quick-strike passing offense. Its defense, arguably the best unit on either side of the ball in the country, should cause headaches for Carson Beck. Unlike the last time these two programs played in a game with national championship implications, the Buckeyes won’t even need a phantom pass interference call. — Craig Meyer, USA TODAY Network
Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Georgia vs Ole Miss odds
Spread: Georgia -6.5
Over/under: 56.5 points
Moneyline: Georgia -250, Ole Miss +200
Georgia vs Ole Miss predictions
Georgia 42, Ole Miss 24: The Rebels had a nice cushy CFP opener to give Pete Golding a perfect start at the helm, but Georgia’s defense is a different animal than Tulane’s. Granted Ole Miss scored 35 points on the Bulldogs in a 43-35 UGA win in October, but I’ve seen Kirby Smart in this spot before. — Matt Glenesk, USA TODAY
Georgia 35, Ole Miss 31: Ole Miss has the opportunity to avenge its only loss of the season this year against No. 3 Georgia, a team it held a multiple-possession lead over when the teams played in the regular season before collapsing in a 43-35 defeat. It’s hard to beat the same team twice in a season, but Smart and the Bulldogs are playing like one of the best teams in the country, and should buck that trend. — Zac Al-Khateeb, USA TODAY Network
Georgia 34, Ole Miss 23: Ole Miss’ debut under Pete Golding was an impressive one, with few, if any, of the potential distractions from Lane Kiffin’s departure showing up on the field in a blowout of a good Tulane team. Georgia’s a different kind of challenge, though, with the Bulldogs playing as well as any team in the country, behind an improving offense and a characteristically stout defense. — Craig Meyer, USA TODAY Network
Orange Bowl: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon
Texas Tech vs Oregon odds
Spread: Oregon -1.5
Over/under: 52.5 points
Moneyline: Oregon -115, Texas Tech -105
Texas Tech vs Oregon predictions
Texas Tech 34, Oregon 26: The Billionaire Bowl. It’s Nike money vs. oil money. Who ya got? The Red Raiders were my pick to win the entire CFP, so not shying away from that. The Ducks have so much speed, but Tech’s defense is one of the best in the country, led by the mustachioed menace Jacob Rodriguez. Dante Moore is considered the top prospect for the 2026 NFL Draft, but don’t sleep on Behren Morton. The Red Raiders’ QB will open some eyes in the Orange Bowl. — Matt Glenesk, USA TODAY
Texas Tech 30, Oregon 24: Did Dan Lanning and Oregon get caught looking ahead to Texas Tech in their 51-34 win over JMU? Did they simply let off the gas after going up 34-6 at halftime? Or do the Ducks have significant flaws that a more talented Texas Tech team can exploit? Only time will tell, but if Oregon plays like it did vs. the Dukes against the Red Raiders, they’ll find their season ended in the Orange Bowl. — Zac Al-Khateeb, USA TODAY Network
Oregon 27, Texas Tech 23: The Red Raiders have one of the best defenses in the country, a group so good that the fifth-place finisher in Heisman Trophy voting is the second-best player on the unit. Their offense can leave a bit to be desired, though, especially in the red zone. That tendency of settling for field goals will come back to bite them against a Ducks team with an explosive offense and a defense that will be determined for a rebound after a subpar second-half showing against James Madison. — Craig Meyer, USA TODAY Network
