Don’t get distracted with No. 1 vs. No. 2 right out the gate. Tantalizing eye candy, no doubt.
But this demolition derby of a College Football Playoff beauty pageant goes much deeper. Or 25 games, to be specific.
Every game matters has been replaced by every week matters. More to the point, every week contains a game that will, in one way or another, shape the College Football Playoff race.
Hands and feet inside the car, kids. We’re off on a wild, white-knuckle ride through the college football season with 25 can’t-miss games. And a final CFP predicted order of finish.
Aug. 30
Texas at Ohio State: A rematch of last year’s national semifinal, and the beginning of the Arch Manning era at Texas. Or is that the Julian Sayin era at Ohio State?
Notre Dame at Miami: The Hurricanes wasted a Heisman Trophy-worthy season from QB Cam Ward in 2024. They’ll waste another with Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck if the defense doesn’t get straightened out by new DC Corey Hetherman.
Sept. 6
Michigan at Oklahoma: Sooners and Wolverines get cupcakes to begin the season, before we find out if both (or either) are CFP-worthy. A true freshman QB (Michigan’s Bryce Underwood) vs. the most-sought QB in the transfer portal (John Mateer).
Sept. 13
Florida at LSU: The first real test for Florida QB DJ Lagway, who has been protected all offseason with any number of injuries (shoulder, core, calf). How does he handle Death Valley — and a potentially desperate LSU team?
Sept. 20
Florida at Miami: If the Hurricanes beat Notre Dame, beating Florida could all but lock up a CFP spot. Because the ACC schedule is about as difficult as finding the beautiful people on South Beach.
Sept. 27
Oregon at Penn State: Ducks have a two-game season: at Penn State, and at bitter rival Washington to finish the season. Other than that, there’s nothing preventing Oregon from another unbeaten regular season.
Alabama at Georgia: I gotta be honest, I’m not feeling it. Remember Alabama-LSU in 2011 (the first game)? Yeah, here comes 9-6.
Oct. 4
Texas at Florida: Gators coach Billy Napier has been saying “spot the ball” all offseason in reference to a difficult schedule. After a stretch of games at LSU, at Miami, Texas and at Texas A&M, we’re going to see if this team is legit — or Napier was whistling through the coaching graveyard.
Oct. 11
Ohio State at Illinois: I know what you’re thinking: Illinois? But what’s not to like? A big, experienced offensive line, a three-year starter at quarterback and a top five defense in the Big Ten. And a dangerous game for Ohio State.
Oklahoma vs. Texas: I could bore you with particulars, but let’s face it: you don’t take a 31-point knot on your head (like OU did in 2024) and not come back the following season with your hair on fire. Not in this series.
Oct. 18
Texas Tech at Arizona State: There are no more excuses for Tech coach Joey Maguire. We’re going to find out if money truly can buy a (Big 12) championship. And more.
Oct. 25
Alabama at South Carolina: Gamecocks are the toughest team in the entire field to figure out. With elite play from QB LaNorris Sellers, they can beat anyone (including Alabama). Without it, they could lose to Virginia Tech in Week 1.
Nov. 1
Penn State at Ohio State: I could make excuses for Penn State coach James Franklin before the fact (Ryan Day lost to Michigan and still won it all), but let’s not kid ourselves: It has to happen. This game, this season.
Georgia vs. Florida: The last time Florida beat Georgia in 2020, the Gators did things to a Kirby Smart defense few have. The talent level is there again in Gainesville, and if Lagway stays healthy, this could be Georgia’s first loss of the season.
Nov. 8
LSU at Alabama: Let’s imagine, for a moment, LSU beats Clemson and Florida and everyone else, and this really is Kelly’s most talented team. This game suddenly becomes an early line in the sand for the Kalen DeBoer era at Alabama.
Nov. 15
Texas at Georgia: Admit it, you can’t forget the deer in the headlights moment for Manning in this game last season. I’m going out on a limb here: playing the Georgia defense in Athens may be a teeny-weeny bit different. If you know what I mean.
Oklahoma at Alabama: If the Sooners truly are a legit threat to win the SEC, it begins here. The Texas game will be pure emotion. This one is pure will and want, and taking a stand.
Nov. 22
Southern California at Oregon: Fans are restless, and the university desperately wants to avoid a huge buyout. Forget about the elite recruiting class USC coach Lincoln Riley is building for 2026. He may need this game to save his job.
Nov. 28
Georgia at Georgia Tech: Renovations at Bobby Dodd Field forced Georgia Tech to move the game to Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Which means 16,000 more fans will see the Yellow Jackets win in the series for the first time since 2016 ― and secure a CFP spot.
Texas A&M at Texas: Aggies coach Mike Elko has been talking all offseason like a guy who knows he has a good team. Then again, all that bravado could get you stumbling around Sixth Street after another ugly loss, searching for late night Thanksgiving leftovers.
Nov. 29
Ohio State at Michigan: If you think Ohio State fans have eased up on coach Ryan Day after last year’s national championship, wait and see what a fifth consecutive loss to Michigan brings.
Clemson at South Carolina: This could be the difference between Clemson earning the No.1 overall seed in the CFP, and/or South Carolina making the CFP. And, you know, they hate each other. That’s all.
College Football Playoff field prediction
1. Penn State
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Oklahoma
5. Texas
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Iowa State
9. Oregon
10. Alabama
11. Georgia Tech
12. South Florida
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
