However, the Dolphins have gone 5-2 in their last seven games to emerge as a potential wild-card threat in the AFC. Their path to the postseason isn’t easy, but if Mike McDaniel’s squad can keep winning, it might have a chance to go to the playoffs for a third consecutive year.
Miami isn’t in control of its own destiny. To make the 2025 NFL playoffs, it must win out and receive help from several teams.
How can the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here’s a look at their postseason chances as the final weeks of the 2024 NFL season unfold.
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Dolphins playoff chances
The Dolphins have a 16% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That ranks as the second-lowest chance among the four AFC teams vying for the conference’s No. 7 seed.
Dolphins playoff odds
The Athletic’s model is much more optimistic about the Dolphins’ chances than DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings lists Miami with +1600 odds to make the postseason. That gives the Dolphins an implied probability of just 5.88% to qualify for the playoffs.
What needs to happen for Dolphins to make playoffs?
The Dolphins need three things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:
The Dolphins must win their final two games;
The Denver Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18;
The Indianapolis Colts must lose or tie one of their final two games;
That represents the Dolphins’ only path to a postseason appearance.
Dolphins remaining schedule
The Dolphins don’t have an overly difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They are playing against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets in the final two weeks of the season. That gives Miami the sixth-easiest schedule league-wide entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29.
However, both of Miami’s games are on the road in outdoor stadiums. That could hurt the team’s chances of winning if the weather is inclement.
The team is also expected to be without Tua Tagovailoa in Cleveland due to a hip injury, so the team will need backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to guide it to a win to stay alive in the NFL playoff race.
Below is a full look at Miami’s schedule:
Week 17: at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Week 18: at New York Jets (4-11)
Broncos remaining schedule
The other good news for the Dolphins is that the Broncos have a difficult matchup to close out the 2024 NFL season. Denver is scheduled to host Kansas City in Week 18. The Chiefs have a 15-1 record and beat the Broncos in a tightly contested 16-14 Week 10 matchup.
That said, it isn’t clear whether the Chiefs – who clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed on Christmas with a 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers – will play their starters in the final week. If not, that could make Denver’s path to a playoff-clinching win a bit easier.
As such, Miami’s postseason fate may ultimately rest in the hands of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Below is a look at Denver’s schedule:
Week 18: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
Colts remaining schedule
Here’s where things get problematic for the Dolphins. They need the Colts to lose, but Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.
The Colts are playing against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined 5-25 record, over the final two weeks of the season. They will be favored in both of those games despite having to start backup quarterback Joe Flacco against the Giants with Anthony Richardson (back, foot) injured.
So, unless the Colts lose to one of the NFL’s worst teams, the Dolphins won’t be able to make it into the postseason, even if the Broncos stumble.
Below is a full look at Indianapolis’ schedule:
Week 17: at New York Giants (2-13)
Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
Dolphins potential playoff opponents
The Dolphins can only be the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs if everything breaks right for them. That leaves Miami with only two possible opponents to face. They are as follows:
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
The Bills have the inside track to the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a Week 17 win over the Jets. The Dolphins are 0-2 against the Bills this season, losing by a combined score of 61-37.
AFC playoff picture Week 17
AFC
Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).
NFC
Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.
