With each passing week, the NFL playoff picture is getting clearer and clearer. Week 15 was no exception.
The AFC saw two more teams clinch postseason berths. The Houston Texans wrapped up the AFC South by virtue of their 20-12 win over the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts’ 31-13 loss to the Denver Broncos while the Pittsburgh Steelers sealed a spot thanks to the latter result.
The NFC side of the bracket was a bit quieter. No teams clinched playoff berths outright, but the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings both gained on the Detroit Lions in the race for the No. 1 seed. Additionally, the Washington Commanders took a step forward in the wild-card race.
It’s also becoming clearer that several teams, like the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, will be difficult to beat in the postseason. As long as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson continue to play at a high level, both teams will represent a significant threat to the Kansas City Chiefs, especially with Patrick Mahomes dealing with yet another late-season ankle injury.
Here are the winners and losers from Sunday of Week 15.
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WINNERS
Bills affirm status as Super Bowl contenders by beating Lions
The Bills already beat their top AFC rival, the Chiefs, earlier in the season. Now, they have also beaten the team many believe to be the NFC’s best, the Lions.
Buffalo earned a 48-42 victory over Detroit in a game during which it jumped out to an early 14-0 lead. Allen had yet another great performance, throwing for 362 yards and two touchdowns while adding 68 yards and two more touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, James Cook had 105 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries, along with a run that was emblematic of the Bills’ toughness throughout the 2024 NFL season.
Cook found open space on a run up the middle, but it appeared that he was about to be pulled down in a very painful way: by his hair. Instead, Cook somehow managed to break the tackle, retain his speed and fly into the end zone for the score.
The Bills are still a game back of the Chiefs in the AFC standings, but they are establishing themselves as an offensive buzz saw that few will want to play in January. If they can somehow overtake the Chiefs and make the road to the Super Bowl run through Buffalo, their cold-weather, home-field advantage could have a chance to make it to the big game for the first time since 1994.
The Vikings’ standing in the NFC North race
Minnesota has been excellent during the 2024 NFL season, but few have given them a legitimate chance to win the NFC North because of how good Detroit has been.
Now, the door is open for the Vikings to finally catch the Lions. The Vikings are just a half-game back of the Lions in the NFC North standings entering their ‘Monday Night Football’ matchup with the Chicago Bears. If they win, they will set up a frenetic three-week stretch during which they will battle for control of the division with the Vikings.
Detroit will still have an upper hand on Minnesota in the divisional race. The Lions are ahead 1-0 in the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings and have a 4-0 divisional record compared to the Vikings’ 2-1 mark.
But if the Lions trip up at any point in the final three games of the season, the Vikings could come away with an unexpected NFC North title.
Lamar Jackson’s MVP chances
Jackson is facing an uphill battle to unseat Josh Allen in the NFL MVP power rankings down the stretch. He is doing everything possible to erase the Bills quarterback’s advantage.
Jackson had another terrific game in Baltimore’s 35-14 decimation of the New York Giants. After fumbling on his first carry, Jackson was nearly flawless, completing 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards while adding 65 yards on six carries.
Granted, the Giants were significantly undermanned on defense and sport an NFL-worst 2-12 record after Sunday. Still, New York did a decent job bottling up Derrick Henry, which put more pressure on Jackson to perform at a high level. He delivered, logging a near-perfect passer rating (154.6) during the contest and producing a plus-23.7 passing EPA.
More importantly, the Ravens are once again within striking distance of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the race for the AFC North title after Pittsburgh’s loss to the Eagles. The Ravens are just one game back of the Steelers entering their pivotal Week 16 clash.
The Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams connection
It didn’t start out that way. In the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Adams failed to log a reception while the Jets scored just seven points.
After halftime? Rodgers found Adams nine times. The veteran receiver turned those nine catches into a whopping 198 yards and two touchdowns, including a 71-yarder and two-point conversion that gave the Jets a three-point fourth-quarter lead.
Adams ended up accounting for about two-thirds of Rodgers’ passing production from the quarterback’s 289-yard, three-touchdown day in the 32-25 win. It may ultimately be lost in what has been a disappointing Jets season, but at least the two former All-Pros proved they still have something in the tank as they head toward an uncertain future in 2025.
LOSERS
Lions’ chances at home-field advantage
Let’s not pretend as though the Lions are in trouble after losing to the Bills. What Detroit fans should be worried about, however, is the possibility of losing home-field advantage.
The Eagles and Lions are now tied for the No. 1 seed in the NFC with the 11-2 Vikings not far behind. The final three weeks of the season will now be all about those three teams jockeying for position in the NFC standings.
But if the Lions lose out on the No. 1 seed to the Eagles, they may ultimately lament losing a game in which they scored 42 points.
The Chiefs’ offensive line struggles continue as Patrick Mahomes suffers injury
Kansas City entered the season with an unsettled situation at left tackle. That has lingered into Week 15, and the offensive front had a rough showing against the Cleveland Browns.
With D.J. Humphries ruled out due to a hamstring injury, the Chiefs moved starting left guard Joe Thuney out to left tackle for the game. While he held up relatively well against Myles Garrett, the team still surrendered pressure on 54% of Mahomes’ dropbacks, per ESPN’s Seth Walder. Mahomes didn’t take any sacks, but the Browns racked up 12 quarterback hits during the contest.
Worst of all was Mahomes’ final hit of the game. The pocket collapsed around him on a fourth-and-3, and while he got the ball out of his hands, he was hit hard, both high and low, after the play.
Mahomes limped off the field after the play and didn’t return to the contest. His ankle is ‘not broken, but it is sore,’ per head coach Andy Reid, while NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that Mahomes is expected to be ‘week-to-week’ because of the injury.
That was good news for the Chiefs. Still, their offensive tackle play remains a problem and could ultimately be what prevents the team from competing for an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat.
The Dolphins’ playoffs chances – and record against winning teams
Miami entered Week 15 with a 16% chance to make the playoffs in the AFC, per The Athletic. Those chances took a significant hit after the Dolphins’ 20-12 loss to the Houston Texans.
Miami’s playoff hopes are now on life support, and the Dolphins can blame their inability to beat winning teams for their issues. They are just 1-5 against teams with a winning record in 2024 compared to a 5-3 mark against teams that are .500 or worse.
As such, Mike McDaniel will likely have to spend the offseason pondering how the Dolphins can be better against playoff contenders to become one themselves.
Jonathan Taylor’s pre-goal-line drop – and the Colts’ playoff chances
The Colts appeared to take a big step toward a road upset of the Denver Broncos when Taylor broke a run that looked like it was going to be a touchdown.
However, Taylor did something that NFL players do all too often. He tossed the ball to the ground to celebrate his score – before he had crossed the goal line.
Taylor’s gaffe proved costly for the Colts. They would have gone up two possessions after his touchdown regardless of the extra point attempt. Instead, the Broncos recovered the ball and remained just six points down.
The play swung momentum in favor of the Broncos, who scored 24 unanswered points to earn a 31-13 victory. The Colts’ loss allowed the Texans to clinch the AFC South and kept Indianapolis two games back of the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC wild-card race with just three games left to go.
