After a shocking turn of events, the Alabama Crimson Tide will not contend for a national championship. Rather, they are the first team out of the 12-team College Football Playoff. While several college football fans are ecstatic that such a big school still had to earn its place in the CFP, others are concerned that this year’s playoff does not consist of the 12 best teams in college football.
Regardless, the field has been set. SMU is in. Clemson is in. Boise State has earned the No. 3 seed. A team outside the top 10 has earned a first-round bye. It’s a beautiful mess, bound to spark debate, outrage and intrigue until the format for next year’s playoff is revealed.
So, who’s expected to hoist the trophy when all is said and done? Here’s every team in the 12-team playoff ranked based on their championship odds. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
College Football Playoff power rankings
Oregon (+325)
Georgia (+350)
Texas (+375)
Ohio State (+450)
Penn State (+700)
Notre Dame (+1200)
Tennessee (+2500)
SMU (+3500)
Clemson (+4000)
Arizona State (+4000)
Indiana (+5000)
Boise State (+5000)
Among these teams, Notre Dame, with only one loss on their resume, could be a sleeper. Sure, the Fighting Irish have yet to play anyone elite, and their games against USC and Louisville were closer than fans would have liked. But this is still a team that has displayed dominance as well. Their massive wins over Army and Navy cannot be overlooked. While Notre Dame could very easily wind up crumbling under the pressure of having to face an elite opponent once the time comes, it is the only team with +1000 odds or greater with a program history of success against top opponents.
Texas is another team that, although its payout wouldn’t be as grand, has a pretty easy path to the semifinals. The 5-seed in this year’s tournament might have the easiest draw of all. The Longhorns get the lowest-seeded team in the tournament, Clemson, in the first round. Waiting in the quarterfinals would be a matchup against the second-lowest ranked team in the tournament, Arizona State. Given that both of Texas’ losses came against Georgia, and the two can’t meet in the playoffs until the national championship game, the Longhorns could very easily coast to the final and never have to face the one team that has proven capable of beating them.
When does College Football Playoff start?
All first-round games will take place at the home field of the higher-seeded team and will be played on either Friday, Dec. 20 or Saturday, Dec. 21.
Full first-round schedule
All times Eastern
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Clemson
Saturday, Dec. 21 at 4 p.m. | TNT, Max
Darrel K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas
Winner will play No. 4 Arizona State in quarterfinals in Chick Fil A Bowl on Jan. 1, 2025 at 1 p.m.
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 SMU
Saturday, Dec. 21 at noon | TNT, Max
Beaver Stadium in State College, Pennsylvania
Winner will play No. 3 Boise State in quarterfinals in Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31, 2024 at 7:30 p.m.
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Indiana
Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. | ESPN, ABC
Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Indiana
Winner will play No. 2 Georgia in quarterfinals in Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1, 2025 at 8:45 p.m.
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Tennessee
Saturday, Dec. 21 at 8 p.m. | ESPN, ABC
Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
Winner will play No. 1 Oregon in quarterfinals in Rose Bowl on Jan. 1, 2025 at 5 p.m.
