The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings will show how race for the 12-team field has solidified heading into conference championship weekend.
Eight spots are spoken for regardless of what happens Friday and Saturday. A ninth will be taken by the Group of Five, with Boise State favored to grab that spot by beating UNLV in the Mountain West title game.
The one game that could shake things up is in the ACC. Teams looking for a backdoor path into the playoff, such as Alabama, will be rooting for SMU to beat Clemson and ensure the ACC gets only one team in the field.
Two other teams to watch are Ohio State and Miami. Both will tumble down the rankings after losing on Saturday, though the Buckeyes are still set for an at-large playoff bid. The same can’t be said of the Hurricanes.
Where those teams fall on Tuesday night is one of several key questions set to define the latest playoff rankings:
Where will Ohio State land?
The Buckeyes came in behind SMU and Tennessee in the US LBM Coaches Poll, but the playoff selection committee will likely take a kinder view of the Buckeyes. That’s because of the wins against Penn State and Indiana, a one-two combo the committee has looked at very favorably throughout this year’s ranking process. Thanks to those wins, Ohio State may even drop just four spots on Tuesday night and come in ahead of both the Mustangs and Volunteers.
How far will Miami drop?
The Hurricanes’ fall will be much more severe. Ranked No. 6 before Saturday’s loss to Syracuse, Miami is expected to drop out of the top 12 and come in behind the three-loss SEC teams in Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina. Two losses in the last three games and no wins against ranked teams are the primary culprits for this drop in the rankings. The Hurricanes’ playoff chances are essentially nonexistent unless the committee pulls a surprise.
BOWL PROJECTIONS: Alabama back into the playoff as Texas, SMU rise
RE-RANK: Texas moves up, Ohio State tumbles in NCAA 1-134 ranking
Will the ACC be a one-bid league?
The best-case scenario for the ACC was to have a pair of one-loss teams meet for the conference title, with the winner earning a first-round bye and the loser still landing an at-large berth. Miami’s loss doesn’t necessarily mean this is a one-bid league, though it does increase those odds. If Clemson wins, look for the Tigers to be No. 12 in the final rankings and the Pac-12 champion to step in as one of the four seeds. SMU would still be in good shape at 11-2, though where the Mustangs rank on Tuesday night will help determine whether they can survive a loss to the Tigers.
Who can we say is already in?
Eight teams can make travel plans for the playoff. Four are in the Big Ten: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana. The winner of the Big Ten championship game between the Ducks and Nittany Lions will earn a first-round bye. The Buckeyes are in line to play at home in the opening round, though that could be complicated by a Penn State win. Oregon falling into at-large territory could drop the Buckeyes a spot in the rankings and send them on the road.
Notre Dame is also set for the playoff. The Irish head into the postseason on a 10-game winning streak and are playing the program’s best football of the Marcus Freeman era. The remaining three playoff locks come from the SEC. Both Texas and Georgia are in the field heading into the conference title game. Tennessee beat Vanderbilt to end the regular season with two losses.
Is the American Athletic out of luck?
The answer to this comes down to where UNLV lands in the rankings compared to Army, if Army even moves back into the rankings after being ejected following the loss to Notre Dame. The Rebels were No. 22 last week and should stay around that area, maybe even inching up a spot or two after scoring the second 10-win season in program history.
Tulane’s loss to Memphis was bad news for the American. That loss will dump out the Green Wave, No. 17 in last week’s rankings, and create a scenario where the Mountain West champion is the Group of Five representative in the playoff. If UNLV stays around No. 20 and beats the Broncos, there’s almost no way Army would make up all that ground with a win against unranked Tulane.
