Bowl Subdivision conference championship matchups are finally settled after weeks of uncertainty, setting the stage for the final weekend of the regular season and the final College Football Playoff rankings.
The nine championship games will be played on Friday and Saturday. The playoff rankings and bracket will be released early on Sunday afternoon.
Nearly every game will have some sort of playoff impact. The three exceptions are the Conference USA, Mid-American and Sun Belt championship games, since those leagues will not factor into deciding which Group of Five team earns an automatic playoff bid.
That spot will go to the American Athletic or Mountain West, with those two title games set to take place simultaneously on Friday night. The matchup in the MWC is expected to Boise State against UNLV, though that won’t be official until Tuesday night’s penultimate playoff rankings. Every Power Four matchup will at a minimum influence seeding and which teams earn opening-round byes.
These games will close the door on a crazy regular season and get us set for the postseason:
ACC: SMU (11-1) vs. Clemson (9-3)
The Tigers were able to sneak into this game after Miami dropped a shootout against Syracuse. After losing to South Carolina on Saturday, beating SMU is Clemson’s only shot at reaching the playoff. The Mustangs would’ve been a strong at-large contender with a loss to one-loss Miami, but that may not be the case should they fall to the three-loss Tigers. The odds are rising that the ACC is a one-bid league.
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Big 12: Arizona State (10-2) vs. Iowa State (10-2)
This is a win-and-in matchup for a pair of 10-win teams that took slightly different routes to the title game. Iowa State was 7-0 before dropping games to Texas Tech and Kansas; the Cyclones rebounded to beat Cincinnati, Utah and Kansas State to reach Arlington, Texas, for the second time in Matt Campbell’s tenure. Arizona State play for Big 12 championship in its first season in the league after one appearance in the Pac-12 title game back in 2013. The Sun Devils will head into Saturday on a five-game winning streak highlighted by wins against Kansas State and Brigham Young. While these two didn’t meet in the regular season, Arizona State lost to Cincinnati but beat Kansas, if that means anything.
Big Ten: Oregon (12-0) vs. Penn State (11-1)
Both teams are in the playoff, so this will determine which Big Ten team gets bye to start the playoff and which will hosts a visitor in the first round. The loser might end up at No. 5, which has two major benefits: one, drawing the No. 12 seed, and two, potentially matching up with Boise State in the quarterfinals. The Ducks should be a lock for the No. 1 overall seed with a win. Should the Nittany Lions prevail, they could be in the mix for that position with Georgia or Texas of the SEC.
SEC: Texas (11-1) vs. Georgia (10-2)
The rematch should be more competitive than Georgia’s 30-15 win in Austin earlier this year. While the Bulldogs struggled in an eight-overtime classic against Georgia Tech, Texas overcame some major sloppiness in the second half to score a 17-7 win at Texas A&M. That puts the Longhorns in the playoff regardless of what happens on Saturday. You can’t necessarily say the same for Georgia, since a third loss would invite comparisons to fellow three-loss contenders Alabama and Mississippi, which beat the Bulldogs.
American Athletic: Tulane (9-3) at Army (10-1)
The host team by going a perfect 8-0 in league play and finishing first in the final standings, the Black Knights will be watching the scoreboard and hoping for an upset in the Mountain West. With a Boise State loss and a win against Tulane, the Black Knights would have an argument for being the Group of Five pick for the playoff. But even that isn’t certain given that UNLV would have a case of its own.
Conference USA: Western Kentucky (8-4) at Jacksonville State (8-4)
Yeah, these two teams will meet again on Friday night, six days after Western Kentucky topped Jacksonville State 19-17 to clinch a spot in the Conference USA title game. The Hilltoppers were able to finish second in the standings thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker with Sam Houston State. The big question heading into this matchup: How much did Rich Rodriguez and the Gamecocks show Western Kentucky on Saturday, knowing they could meet again less than a week later? Jacksonville State had won eight in a row, scoring at least 31 points in every game but one.
MAC: Ohio (9-3) at Miami (Ohio) (8-4)
Both teams are on a roll. Ohio has won five in a row, including two keys wins against Buffalo and Toledo, and Miami has taken seven in a row, capped by Friday’s victory against Bowling Green. These teams met on Oct. 19, with the RedHawks scoring a 30-20 win. Miami is looking for back-to-back MAC titles for the first time since 1973-75 while Ohio is aiming for the program’s first league crown since 1968.
Mountain West: UNLV (10-2) at Boise State (11-1)
Boise State is in the playoff with a win, and maybe even as one of the top four conference champions. But the same might be said of UNLV, which rose to No. 22 in last week’s playoff rankings. The MWC tiebreaker between UNLV and Colorado State is which team is ranked higher on Tuesday night, and the Rebels are certain to stay in rankings. Army was unranked after losing to Notre Dame and Tulane was No. 17, though the Green Wave very likely won’t be in this week’s rankings. That suggests the Mountain West winner will be the Group of Five representative in the playoff.
Sun Belt: Marshall (9-3) at Louisiana-Lafayette (10-2)
Louisiana will host the championship game, which is a crucial advantage given conference history: The home team is 5-0 in the Sun Belt title game since the league enacted its divisional split in 2018. The Ragin’ Cajuns have been the most consistent team in the conference, which had eight teams reach bowl eligibility after placing 12 in the postseason a year ago. Marshall booked its seat after climbing out of a 17-0 halftime hole at James Madison to win 35-33 in double overtime. Louisiana might’ve had a chance at the playoff had it not lost to South Alabama earlier this month.
