Clemson doesn’t have the strongest case for the College Football Playoff, but it just needs a case better than Indiana’s. And it’s getting closer.
Debate could boil down to choosing team with better record (Indiana) or team with better top win, if Clemson beats South Carolina.
How close are Indiana and Clemson in committee’s eyes? ‘Pretty close,’ CFP committee chairman says.
Here comes little ol’ Clemson.
Two weeks ago, when a reporter asked Dabo Swinney to offer a pitch for his Tigers to make the College Football Playoff, the Clemson coach obliged, but his heart didn’t really seem in it.
Swinney offered some meandering rhetoric that amounted to: Why not Clemson?
The answer, at that time, was that Clemson’s résumé didn’t stack up with a number of at-large contenders ahead of it.
Since then, the SEC cannibalized itself.
Now that the College Football Playoff committee values Clemson ahead of three-loss SEC teams like Alabama and Mississippi, we must ask with a straight face: Why not Clemson?
If Clemson beats No. 15 South Carolina on Saturday, then the committee will be forced to strongly consider the Tigers’ credentials.
Clemson ranked No. 12 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, released Tuesday. More important than the ranking, though, is the reality that Clemson (9-2) sits as the first team out of the playoff field.
That’s not a doomsday placement. Last week, Tennessee ranked as the first team out of the field. By Tuesday, the Vols had moved onto the No. 9 seed line.
A lot can happen in a Saturday, and Clemson wouldn’t need much help to get into the field.
But, should Clemson need any help at all to enter the field?
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What Warde Manuel said about Clemson
Consider the case between No. 10 Indiana, at 10-1, compared to Clemson.
If the Hoosiers beat 1-10 Purdue in their finale and Clemson beats South Carolina, would that be enough to elevate the Tigers into the field, at Indiana’s expense?
CFP committee chairman Warde Manuel can’t answer that question, because he understandably won’t speculate about what a 13-person committee would do in response to games that haven’t happened.
What Manuel can do, though, is tell us how close the evaluation currently is between Indiana and Clemson.
So, how close is it?
‘Pretty close,’ Manuel said.
“We think highly of both teams,’ he continued, ‘and as you can see, they’re very close in the rankings.”
Tigers fans should like that answer.
CFP bracket case between Clemson, Indiana could get interesting
Right now, it’s understandable for Indiana to be ahead of Clemson.
While the Hoosiers lack a marquee victory, their only loss came on the road at No. 2 Ohio State.
Clemson lost at home to Louisville. The Cardinals have seven wins but aren’t ranked. The Tigers also lost in the season opener against Georgia. Like Indiana, Clemson lacks for a defining victory.
The conversation changes, though, if Clemson beats South Carolina. That would give the Tigers a better win than anything on the Hoosiers’ résumé.
True, Clemson would have an extra loss compared to Indiana, but shouldn’t the Tigers earn credit for scheduling tough non-conference opponents?
The Tigers have 10 Power Four opponents on their schedule. Indiana has nine, canceled Louisville in favor of Western Illinois, and didn’t play a single game against an opponent from the SEC, ACC or Big 12.
Too bad Clemson couldn’t cancel Louisville for Western Illinois.
Clemson can’t count Louisville as a good loss. It’s not. It’s a home loss to an unranked foe. And, the Tigers avoided the ACC’s top playoff contenders, Miami and SMU.
Clemson is 1-2 against teams that currently boast a winning record. Indiana is 3-1 against teams with winning records but hasn’t beaten anyone that’s better than 6-5. Neither built an unassailable playoff case, and perhaps the better debate here is whether the committee got it wrong by ranking Clemson ahead of Alabama and Ole Miss, which have an additional loss but better wins.
The committee made its call on that front, and if Clemson beats the Gamecocks, there would be no argument to reverse course and slide it behind Alabama or Ole Miss.
Considering what the committee thinks of three-loss teams – it doesn’t like them – Clemson doesn’t need an ironclad playoff case. It just needs one that’s better than Indiana’s, and it’s getting closer.
If Indiana had scheduled Georgia for its season opener, like Clemson did, and Clemson scheduled Florida International, like Indiana did, I suspect we wouldn’t be having this conversation, because the Tigers would be ranked ahead of the Hoosiers.
How much would the committee value an 11-win team from the Big Ten, compared to a 10-win ACC team that played 10 Power Four opponents, including two ranked SEC teams?
Again, don’t expect Manuel to project on hypotheticals.
‘We don’t project, but winning always helps,’ Manuel said.
And winning against a quality opponent like South Carolina should help Clemson more than beating clueless Purdue would aid Indiana.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
