The College Football Playoff selection committee harbors a November crush on the Big Ten’s crème de la crème, with no love spared for the Big 12.
BYU is ranked No. 9 despite being undefeated and touting some quality victories.
Big Ten, SEC are well-positioned for four CFP bids apiece.
The College Football Playoff selection committee harbors a November crush on the Big Ten’s crème de la crème.
The first CFP rankings paved a path for the Big Ten to snatch four spots in the 12-team playoff, including multiple teams seeded high enough to host first-round games.
The Big Ten’s No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 6 Penn State and No. 8 Indiana accounted for half the spots in the CFP’s top eight.
Here are my five burning reactions after these initial rankings.
When in doubt, CFP committee values eye test
You can’t make a compelling case for Texas to be ranked as high as No. 5 other than the Longhorns looked awesome throughout the season’s first six games on the eye test – against a forgiving schedule, we should add. Texas stockpiled an impressive assembly of talent on each side of the ball, but the Longhorns showed vulnerabilities in their past two games against Georgia and Vanderbilt, and their strength of schedule trails Penn State and Tennessee, two other one-loss teams. The committee ranked Texas ahead of both, and also in front of undefeated Brigham Young, a nod to the Longhorns’ early season ace-grade on the eye test.
Likewise, undefeated Indiana received some committee love despite having the softest strength of schedule among teams slotted into the current bracket. The Hoosiers look fabulous on the eye test on both sides of the ball. They’re not just beating opponents, they’re blowing them out.
The Hoosiers’ ranking tells me they can afford a loss later this month at Ohio State and still make the playoff – assuming they don’t get blown out.
BYU got snubbed, and that stings for the Big 12
The ACC and Big 12 each are vulnerable to becoming one-bid leagues, but the ACC retains an avenue to two qualifiers.
If No. 13 SMU wins out and claims the ACC’s automatic bid, the committee positioned itself with these rankings to award an at-large bid to No. 4 Miami.
The Big 12 found no such luck.
No. 9 BYU became the Big 12’s lone representative ranked inside the top 16.
If BYU wins the Big 12, the conference almost certainly will be a one-bid league. If the Cougars lose in the Big 12 championship game, they might slide to the wrong side of the bubble, thereby still limiting the Big 12 to one bid.
The committee really did BYU dirty. The Cougars play complementary football. They’re among 11 teams that rank in the top 25 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
They’re the only team to beat SMU – and they did so on the road.
They’re one of two teams to beat Kansas State – and they routed the Wildcats.
BYU’s schedule strength compares to that of Texas, which lost at home to Georgia, but the Cougars are ranked four spots behind the Longhorns. BYU also came in one spot behind Indiana, which has faced a squishier schedule.
“Indiana’s strength of schedule is not at strong as BYU’s, but what Indiana has done on the field when they’re winning those games, they’re winning by double digits,” CFP committee chairman Warde Manuel explained on ESPN.
Manuel specifically was asked about the gap between No. 4 Miami and BYU.
“It came down to more of an eye test,” Manuel said.
The upshot: Style points matter, and the committee just isn’t smitten by BYU and the Big 12.
Big Ten, SEC set up nicely for CFP bracket
The Big Ten and SEC are positioned beautifully for four bids apiece.
Ohio State and Indiana are the Big Ten’s only ranked teams scheduled to play each other, and the committee’s early respect for each team gives cushion for either to absorb a loss in that clash and still make the playoff.
Seven SEC teams are ranked inside the top 16. The committee’s tough choice on the SEC will come down to which teams to admit.
The committee’s task will be more challenging if No. 16 Ole Miss upsets Georgia on Saturday. A win by the Rebels would carve out the possibility of as many as six SEC teams building playoff credentials, with with not much separation among team.
Boise State (almost) got the respect it deserves
Some would say the committee put respect on Boise State’s name by awarding a No. 12 ranking to the Group of Five darling. I say the committee could have justified ranking the Broncos a couple of spots higher.
Boise State owns quality wins against No. 21 Washington State and UNLV, and the Broncos pushed Oregon to the brink in a 37-34 loss in September.
The Broncos enjoy the catbird positioning for the Group of Five’s playoff bid, and if you combine a BYU loss with Boise State winning out, the Broncos could elevate their position into earning a first-round bye.
Byes are reserved for the top four conference champions. Based on these rankings, it’s not automatic that the Big 12 will claim one of those byes.
The cutline for an at-large playoff bid
Based on résumé, future schedules and this peek into the committee’s insight, I’m drawing the cutline at No. 16.
If you’re a Power Four team ranked No. 16 or better, you retain a chance of earning an at-large bid. Those ranked 17th or lower probably need to win a conference championship to earn entry. That leaves out one-loss Pittsburgh and Iowa State and two-loss Kansas State and Clemson.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
