Things are starting to get serious in the Bowl Subdivision.
Non-conference play is a thing of the distant past this season. Contenders are being chewed up in league play, with teams such as Michigan, Oklahoma and others getting erased the from College Football Playoff conversation amid multiple October losses.
Another team that has been put on the verge of playoff elimination is Alabama. The Crimson Tide went into October riding the wave of a win against Georgia but have lost twice this month, to Vanderbilt and Tennessee, and barely survived a third possible loss by escaping with a 27-25 victory against South Carolina.
Even still, the playoff picture remains cloudy with six weeks to go until conference championship weekend. There are 20 teams in the Power Four with one loss or fewer: six in the ACC and SEC, five in the Big Ten and three in the Big 12.
This home stretch of the regular season will help trim the list of playoff contenders. Beginning with this Saturday, these are the 10 games that will decide the final standings in the Power Four and which teams advance to the playoff:
No. 21 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon, Oct. 26
After losing to Penn State and looking very average in a 50-49 win against Purdue, Illinois rebounded with a very dominant win last Saturday against Michigan. That sets up this weekend’s trip to Oregon, a must-have win for the Illini’s playoff hopes. That the Ducks are about three-touchdown favorites shows the long odds Illinois will have to overcome to land an enormous upset.
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No. 11 Notre Dame vs. No. 24 Navy, Oct. 26
Notre Dame benefits from the way Texas A&M has climbed the national rankings and how No. 23 Army and No. 24 Navy have turned back the clock with a combined 13-0 start. While the Fighting Irish are in the playoff with just one loss, running the table and landing another two ranked wins would have a major influence on where they land in the playoff bracket. This game will be played at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, so a win for Notre Dame would be carry even more weight with the playoff selection committee.
No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State, Nov. 2
The winner of this game would very likely reach the Big Ten championship game while the loser is relegated to competing for an at-large bid. A second loss with four weeks to go would make things very stressful on the Buckeyes, though they’d be favored to win out against Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana and Michigan. Even with a loss, unbeaten Penn State would remain in an enviable position to secure that at-large berth.
No. 5 Miami at Georgia Tech, Nov. 9
Miami has the easiest path to a perfect regular season of any current Power Four unbeaten, starting with Saturday’s rivalry against Florida State. But there are some quality teams on the schedule, including Duke at home on Nov. 2 and a trip to Syracuse on Nov. 30. The biggest challenge should be Georgia Tech on the road, though Notre Dame had no trouble with the Yellow Jackets this past Saturday.
No. 15 Alabama at No. 7 LSU, Nov. 9
Alabama first has to get past No. 17 Missouri this weekend, and nothing seems certain given the way the Crimson Tide have stumbled in October. But winning against the Tigers and then LSU would get Kalen DeBoer’s first team back on track for the playoff with Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn to close the regular season.
No. 8 Tennessee at No. 2 Georgia, Nov. 16
Like Alabama, Tennessee can’t get caught looking past Kentucky and Mississippi State before the trip to Athens. Saturday’s 24-17 win against the Tide was very meaningful given how earlier wins against North Carolina State and Oklahoma have since lost their luster. Beating the Bulldogs could get the Volunteers into the SEC championship game.
No. 9 Clemson at No. 20 Pittsburgh, Nov. 16
Clemson has been on a tear since dropping the season opener against Georgia. Behind an explosive of offensive productivity and amid Miami’s hot-and-cold run to start conference play, the Tigers have looked like the ACC favorite. Pittsburgh has played them very well since joining the ACC, winning in 2016 and again when the two teams last met in 2021. The Panthers would leap into second place in the conference power rankings with a victory and become a very legitimate playoff contender.
No. 13 Indiana at No. 4 Ohio State, Nov. 23
Indiana has swayed even the most cynical doubter by charging off to the program’s best start since 1967. Given how they’ve looked in recent weeks, including a 56-7 win last weekend against Nebraska, the Hoosiers could be favored to beat Washington, Michigan State and Michigan to stay unbeaten before taking the Buckeyes. One possible snag is the injury suffered by quarterback Kurtis Rourke that could hold him out for multiple weeks.
No. 6 Texas at No. 14 Texas A&M, Nov. 30
The rekindled rivalry hits the ground running with a matchup that could determine which teams make the SEC championship game. Remarkably, A&M has immediately gone from one of the biggest disappointments in the Power Four under Jimbo Fisher to a serious player in the SEC under new coach Mike Elko. Should the Aggies beat LSU on Saturday, this could be a matchup of one-loss contenders that sends both teams to the playoff regardless of the result.
No. 16 Kansas State at No. 10 Iowa State, Nov. 30
Maybe Iowa State won’t cruise to 11-0 before meeting Kansas State, given how the Cyclones barely survived last week’s test against Central Florida. But this one is the biggest game to come in the Big 12 even if the two meet again one week later to decide the conference championship and which team receives an opening-round playoff bye. After a decade of Kansas State dominance in the series, ISU has taken four of the past six meetings.
