The No. 1 recruit to go along with one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Bronny James. Second in the Pac-12 preseason poll. Ranked in the preseason USA TODAY Sports men’s basketball coaches poll.
After three consecutive tournament appearances – which included an Elite Eight run in 2021 – Southern California was poised to compete for a Pac-12 championship along with Arizona.
Instead, they’ll be fighting just to finish over .500.
It’s been a season full of let downs for the Trojans, who are currently riding a five-game losing streak and sit at the bottom of the Pac-12 with a 8-12 record. To make matters worse, they are coming off a 15-point home loss to rival UCLA, which is also in the midst of its own struggles. Projected NBA draft lottery pick Isaiah Collier is out through the middle of February with a hand injury, and James has shown the freshman struggles in his first college season.
You could pick and choose which side of the ball has hurt the Trojans the most this season. The defense gives up 74.7 points per game, which ranks 251st in the country. The scoring offense has been decent for a majority of the season, but it’s currently in a funk, averaging 69.4 points per game in conference play, second-worst behind UCLA.
The struggles in Los Angeles highlight what seems to be a down season for several West Coast schools. The Pac-12, which is coming off a successful football season in its final year of existence as we know it, only has three teams in the latest USA TODAY Sports men’s tournament Bracketology. Only one – Arizona – is projected to avoid playing in the First Four.
With one full month of the men’s college basketball season left, Southern California can all but kiss its tournament hopes away. But they aren’t the only team in realistic danger of missing out on the tournament. Here are other teams that have failed to meet expectations so far:
UCLA
Across the last 12 tournaments, Mick Cronin has coached in every one of them. But his streak is likely to end this time around.
It wasn’t going to be easy for the Bruins to replace 82% of their scoring from last season, so Cronin went abroad and brought in several international players to revamp his group. It’s been a work-in-progress, with UCLA sitting at 9-11 and in danger of missing the tournament for the first time since 2019.
The Bruins have always been a defensive team with Cronin at the helm, and this year is no exception. The Bruins have allowed 63.8 points per game, good enough to rank 18th in the country, but the offense hasn’t been able to stay consistent enough for them to win games. The 65.2 points per game is 17th-worst among the 351 teams ranked in Division I and the 30.7% 3-point percentage is 301st in the country.
UCLA looks to be heading in the right direction, winning three of its last four games, but with an 0-6 record against Quad 1 teams, the résumé isn’t strong enough even with a possible late-season run. It’ll be conference tournament or bust to make the NCAA field.
Gonzaga
A 16-5 record for most teams would be a great place to be at this point in the season, and by no means is Gonzaga having a bad year, but it’s not meeting the expectations in Spokane.
Simply put, the West Coast Conference is catching up to the Bulldogs. The Zags got a rude start to conference play with a one-point loss to Santa Clara, putting them in a tie for second place while Saint Mary’s sits in first place. The two meetings against the Gaels every season are typically the biggest games of the WCC, but there’s an extra need for Gonzaga to win those games.
They don’t have any Quad 1 wins, so clinching the conference would be the best guarantee of a tournament spot. But losing to Saint Mary’s – and dropping any other games – could result in Gonzaga missing the tournament for the first time this century.
Michigan State
Michigan State started the season No. 4 in the preseason poll with expectations of competing for a Big Ten title and Final Four berth. It instead began with a loss to James Madison and it’s been inconsistency since then for Tom Izzo’s squad.
The Spartans have relied on defense, holding opponents to 39.9% shooting. Its best win was a blowout against Baylor that sparked a five-game win streak, but it fell to Wisconsin twice and still has Illinois and Purdue on the schedule. As it stands, Michigan State is likely making the tournament, but it can’t afford any missteps against the bottom half of the conference as those preseason aspirations continue to fade away.
Villanova
Ranked No. 20 in the preseason poll, Villanova was hoping to make strides in Kyle Neptune’s second season at the helm, but confusing losses have the 11-10 Wildcats needing a strong finish to be an at-large pick.
The wins over North Carolina and Creighton are good résumé boosts, but the three Quad 3 losses might be too much to overlook by Selection Sunday. On top of that, Villanova has lost four-straight games and are eighth in the Big East. Eric Dixon has done it all for the squad, but he’s going to need more help offensively if the Wildcats don’t want to miss the tournament again.
Arkansas
The Razorbacks have enjoyed major tournament success under Eric Musselman − with two Elite Eights and defeats of high seeds Gonzaga and Kansas in the last three seasons − but they are far away from appearing on the bubble.
Arkansas can’t seem to stop anybody defensively, giving 76.8 points per game, which is 297th in the country and tied for worst in the SEC with Florida. It also doesn’t help that they lost to the Gators by 22 points a few weeks ago.
The SEC is once again deep this season, possibly sending nine teams into March Madness. But the Razorbacks have lost six of their past seven games, and just recently had senior starter Davonte Davis leave the team, just another example of how bleak things are looking in Fayetteville.
The ACC
In the past 10 tournaments, the ACC has seen at least four teams selected, including nine in 2017 and 2018. This season, it might be lucky to get three.
As is typical, North Carolina and Duke reign supreme in the conference and should be shoe-ins, but after that, it’s not as clear. Virginia is starting to get hot, but it needs more Quad 1 wins. Miami, which is coming off a Final Four appearance, hasn’t looked consistent in conference play and dropped a bad game to Louisville. Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Syracuse and Clemson all need to separate themselves from the middle of the pack.
The ACC is also home to some of the worst power conference teams in Notre Dame and Louisville. It’s long been known as a basketball conference, and there’s a good chance the Blue Devils and Tar Heels get the ACC its seventh Final Four team in the past eight seasons, but it’s overall a down year in the Atlantic.
