Well, that’s a wrap on the 2023 regular season for the NFL.
And now that we know the 14 teams participating in the postseason, we can start to see the matchups that will determine the eventual Super Bowl showdown.
In the AFC, the Buffalo Bills charged back from a midseason slump to claim the AFC East and the No. 2 seed. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins lost three of their last five games to squander the division away, now needing to travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in the wild-card round.
In the NFC East, the Philadelphia Eagles’ collapse continued.
But before we consider the playoffs, there are plenty of conclusions to draw from the finale for teams who didn’t make it. And no storyline is bigger than the future of Patriots coach Bill Belichick and whether he moves on to the sideline of another franchise.
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Here are the winners and losers from the last day of the NFL regular season.
WINNERS
Young Packers come through
Though it hasn’t been without rough patches, this season can be considered nothing but a rousing success for the Green Bay Packers (9-8). Jordan Love, in his first season as the team’s starting quarterback, improved as the campaign wore on, limiting turnovers and unleashing an accurate downfield passing attack. In the process, he has elevated Green Bay’s young receivers Jayden Reed (four receptions and 112 yards in a 17-9 win against the Chicago Bears) and Dontayvion Wicks (six receptions for 61 yards and two touchdowns). Over the final eight games of the season, Love posted an 18:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
But also credit Green Bay’s embattled defense for saving a massive performance against the versatile Justin Fields, limiting him to just 148 passing yards and just 27 rushing yards. The Bears had won four of their previous five games and had averaged 30.7 points in their last three wins.
Incentives!
It’s always nice to see players get a little – sometimes quite significant, actually – boost in their bank accounts for reaching performance-based incentives in their contracts. And it’s nice, too, when coaches and teammates celebrate players who reach those goals.
Among the most notable to get their bonuses are star Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones, whose 10½ sacks coined him $1.25 million, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, who netted a cool $1 million for leading Tampa Bay to the postseason and Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who reached two of three $250,000 incentives against the Jaguars.
DeMeco Ryans, C.J. Stroud and the bright future for the Houston Texans
The Houston Texans finished last season 3-13-1, which was the second-worst record in the NFL and the worst in the AFC. The team hired DeMeco Ryans as a rookie head coach and drafted C.J. Stroud to be its quarterback. In one season, Ryans has completely revamped the team’s culture, Stroud has become one of the better young passers in the league and the Texans − thanks in part to a Jacksonville collapse − became the first team in NFL history to win their division with a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach.
Most impressive about Houston (10-7), and this is a testament to the job Ryans has done, is how efficiently and mistake-free the team has played. The Texans finished the season with the fewest giveaways (14) in the entire NFL. Stroud produced the top touchdown-to-interception ratio (23:5) in the league. With Ryans and Stroud as cornerstones, the Texans may come to dominate the AFC South for years to come.
LOSERS
The Jaguars, all along, were frauds
No team collapsed worse in the NFL this season than the Jaguars (9-8). This was a team that, through Week 12, was 8-3 and had a 96% chance to make the playoffs, according to the NFL’s statistical model at the time. Jacksonville instead lost five of its last six games, including a win-and-in finale against a Titans team that came into Sunday with only five victories.
This was a poorly coached offensive team; quarterback Trevor Lawrence, even at this juncture of the season, had multiple breakdowns with his receivers, firing passes to spots where he expected his targets to be. Often, he flat-out missed them. The Jaguars wasted opportunities (none more significant than getting stuffed on a fourth-and-goal at the one in the fourth quarter), played inefficiently, made mental mistakes, dropped passes and had star potential underwhelm. Now the Jaguars must address these problems with significant changes in the offseason.
If this is indeed the end for Belichick in New England, Belichick the GM let Belichick the coach down
This season marks the lowest winning percentage (.235) Bill Belichick has had as the coach of the New England Patriots (4-13). And as uncertainty swirls about his future at the organization he made the most powerful dynasty, the overwhelming factor in his failure was his inability to maintain and develop talent on the roster, specifically on offense.
Belichick gets credit, rightfully so, for some impressive personnel decisions during New England’s Super Bowl runs. But he has left the Patriots without any veritable difference-makers on offense. Belichick has been unable to find Tom Brady’s replacement. He has been equally unable to find a receiver capable of beating cornerbacks; the team’s leading receiver in 2023 was Pop Douglas, who gained just 561 receiving yards. Belichick is clearly still a premier coach in the NFL. The Patriots defense has excelled and kept the team competitive. If he goes on to lead another franchise, Belichick might need someone like former director of personnel Nick Caserio − now general manager of the Texans − to guide roster decisions.
No end in sight for Eagles’ skid
The Eagles (11-6) lost five of their last six games in the regular season. Their last two defeats came against the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants, a pair of teams whose combined 2023 record was 10-23 (.303).
The defense has repeatedly broken down in coverages down the stretch; in the second quarter, with Philadelphia already in a 17-point hole, Giants receiver Darius Slayton slipped past a pair of Eagles defenders on the left side of the field who clearly miscommunicated their assignment, allowing Slayton to easily skip into the end zone. The offense has been outgained in eight of their last 10 games. Despite all that, the Eagles may have a bigger issue: Philadelphia, with a ton to play for − an NFC East championship was still up for grabs − showed up entirely flat and lacked any urgency. Against the Giants, the Eagles did have injuries to account for, but this team does not have the look of one poised for a deep postseason run.
Mike McDaniel and Dolphins offense, again, outclassed in big games
The caveat has to come first: The Miami Dolphins (11-6) have faced a rash of injuries. That impacted their performance, without question. Still, the Dolphins, as they have all season long, failed to produce any worthwhile offensive force to match opposing teams in big games.
Much of the blame falls to Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. His play-calling in big games has been tight, often going away from things the team does quite well, especially in second halves. The first four offensive Miami drives after intermission yielded 13 plays, 24 yards, one first down and four punts. Running back De’Von Achane ran the ball eight times in the first half for 55 yards − at a clip of 6.8 yards per carry − with one touchdown. In the second half, which started with Miami playing with a lead, McDaniel gave Achane just two carries, which generated one single yard. That’s inexcusable.
