Let Russ cook … just not in this kitchen?
The Denver Broncos are sitting quarterback Russell Wilson for the final two weeks of the NFL’s 2023 regular season – this despite the fact the team is still mathematically alive for a wild card and even the AFC West title, though those are remote possibilities.
Regardless, the news invites some fascinating scenarios.
There certainly appears to be a financial component to Denver’s decision. Wilson is already owed a fully guaranteed $39 million in 2024, and the $37 million he’d make in 2025 locks in shortly after free agency commences in March. The Broncos are in for a pound of flesh here, but perhaps they don’t want to be in for two. If Wilson doesn’t play in the Rockies again, Denver can not only avoid an injury guarantee potentially activating, it can also preserve the possibility of trading a healthy player – the dead-cap charge for cutting him in 2024 would be $85 million but would drop to $68 million if a buyer stepped forward to acquire Wilson in a deal.
Yet while we’ve seen enormous quarterback contracts moved before despite massive financial implications – think Jared Goff, Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan – it seems unlikely teams will be clamoring for a 35-year-old who’s appeared more advanced than his age much of the past two seasons and largely without the mobility component that made Wilson so effective during his decade with the Seattle Seahawks.
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But let’s entertain what seems like a strong possibility that Wilson, a nine-time Pro Bowler, winds up in another uniform next year given Broncos coach Sean Payton has seemingly opened that door less than a year into his own tenure. Where might Wilson most likely land in 2024?
Here are eight possibilities:
Atlanta Falcons
It remains to be seen if HC Arthur Smith is the long-term guy in the ATL. But if he is, he’ll surely need to do better than Desmond Ridder and/or Taylor Heinicke if what should be a talented offense is going to take flight. And while, say, a local guy like Chicago Bears (for now) QB Justin Fields might be the ideal answer, you can’t always get what you want. But Wilson, in the near term anyway, might be what they need to optimize talents like WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson in an eminently winnable division.
Las Vegas Raiders
Rookie Aidan O’Connell is currently the starter – uninspiring as he’s been at times – and Jimmy Garoppolo is technically under contract through the 2025 season. But who knows what this franchise’s depth chart and – more importantly – org chart will look like a month from now. A rebuild hardly seems like an optimal situation for Wilson … though it would be one that allowed him to see the Broncos twice a year while perhaps building a better bridge than Garoppolo managed.
Miami Dolphins
Let’s start with the admission that this is probably a bit far-fetched. But, at the moment, Fins QB Tua Tagovailoa is only under contract through next season – and with the parameters of the fifth-year option on his rookie deal. Meanwhile, his notable 2020 draft peers – Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts – all signed megadeals prior to the 2023 season. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa waits … and maybe decides he doesn’t want to play for a relatively modest $23.2 million in 2024 if the Dolphins don’t pony up the extension he’s looking for. Just saying, given an ascending defense and an offense loaded with weaponry, Wilson seems like the kind of player who could be a perfect fallback … if Tagovailoa is out of the picture, even temporarily, and Wilson was willing to play for something close to the veteran minimum.
Minnesota Vikings
Like Wilson, Kirk Cousins is 35. Wilson might soon be a free agent, but Cousins is definitely scheduled to hit the open market in 2024. Given how well he was playing before tearing his Achilles in October, maybe the Vikings re-sign Cousins. Or, maybe they’ll be looking for an alternative who might not demand as much financially yet can be counted on to put the ball into WR Justin Jefferson’s area code.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones, a first-rounder in 2021, doesn’t seem to be the answer. Bailey Zappe? Also unlikely. And HC Bill Belichick’s job status is a major unknown at the moment … even while it appears he’s busily trying to pilot the Pats out of a top-five pick in what projects to be a strong quarterback draft. All of which is to say … who knows? But this certainly looks like the tenuous kind of environment that could eventually at least afford Wilson the starting opportunity he’d doubtless seek if he winds up on the unemployment line.
Pittsburgh Steelers
In 24 starts since being drafted in the first round last year, Kenny Pickett (13 TD passes, 13 interceptions, 78.8 passer rating) has been the definition of average – at best. But this team seems to have a win-now (and certainly veteran-laden) defense, yet will have the opportunity to reimagine an underachieving offense in 2024, one that will require a new coordinator … and maybe an experienced quarterback like Wilson, who’s proven – if nothing else – this season that he can still be an effective game manager (26 TD passes, 98.0 passer rating) if not his vintage Pro Bowl self.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Could Wilson find himself doing what Baker Mayfield did in 2023 – seeking a locale to compete for a starting gig and then making the most of it? Who knows if Mayfield will become part of the Bucs’ long-term plans with his one-year deal set to soon expire – possibly after leading this organization to a third straight NFC South flag. But if he isn’t? Definitely worth noting that OC Dave Canales was on Seattle’s staff for the entirety of Wilson’s tenure in the Pacific Northwest, including stints as the quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator.
Washington Commanders
Another franchise likely facing regime change and with uncertainty at quarterback, sophomore Sam Howell benched along with Wilson on Wednesday. On the one hand, Washington has been playing musical quarterbacks for years and shown what folly that “philosophy” can be. On the other, the Commanders may not have much of a choice in 2024 if Howell falls out of favor and a younger, better option isn’t forthcoming or ready to play. Wilson has been far from perfect, but he has distributed the ball efficiently in 2023 and generally minimized mistakes – attributes that would seemingly play well with the Commanders’ sterling play makers regardless of who’s calling the shots.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.
