The NFL unwrapped its Week 16 slate Sunday on Christmas Eve, and no game was bigger than the battle between the Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins.
With their loss, Dallas now has to hope for a Christmas Day gift in the form of a New York Giants victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Otherwise, the Cowboys’ shot at an NFC East title may be slipping away. The Dolphins, meanwhile, helped shake the narrative that they cannot beat a good team, but the performance wasn’t without issue. And one significant one on offense could portend potential problems in the playoffs.
Elsewhere in the NFL, an entire division, the AFC South, came away empty-handed.
Here are the winners and losers from Sunday of Week 16.
WINNERS
Dolphins (finally) beat a good team, but they have a major flaw
Let’s credit Miami: an ugly 22-20 win against a resilient Cowboys team is still a win. It’s also one that helped the Dolphins (11-4) upend a narrative that they cannot compete against top-tier teams in the NFL. But, against Dallas, Miami converted just one of four trips inside the red zone.
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Going back the previous two games, Miami’s red zone efficiency improves only slightly, combining to go five for 15 over its last three. Goal-to-go scenarios are most concerning, where the Dolphins have simply stalled. Against the Cowboys, Miami went one-for-three, and this comes two weeks after it went one-for-four in a loss against the Tennessee Titans. Coach Mike McDaniel has often called plays that move laterally, the pace and urgency slows, and Miami, at times, seems to overthink its operation. That has happened on third-and-shorts as well, and the Dolphins finally self-corrected late in the game with a quick screen that got Tyreek Hill in open space and a power rush up the middle with Jeff Wilson. It was a huge victory. The Dolphins clinched their second consecutive postseason berth. But their ineffectual short-yardage execution is exactly the type of problem that gets good teams eliminated early.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers
The month of December has been kind to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers (8-7) have won each of the four games they’ve played in the final month of 2023, and quarterback Baker Mayfield has been particularly efficient. He has thrown for 1,010 yards and has posted a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in December.
Mayfield has developed an excellent rapport with star receiver Mike Evans, whose 13 receiving touchdowns lead the NFL. In a 30-12 rout of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay converted a season-high 10 third-down attempts. And now, the Bucs have a one-game edge in the division, though their final two opponents are against NFC South foes. The surge is paying off. An NFL Network report ahead of the victory over the Jaguars indicated that Mayfield and the Buccaneers had mutual interest in running it back, with his contract set to expire after the season. A playoff appearance would only strengthen Mayfield’s case for the future.
Amari Cooper and David Njoku
Since veteran Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback of the Cleveland Browns (10-5), receiver Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku have incinerated opponents. Cooper, in particular, has dominated. Against Houston, he hauled in 11 passes for a Browns single-game record 265 yards, and added a pair scores, giving him 451 yards and three touchdowns over the last three.
Njoku has combined for 22 catches and 239 yards and four touchdowns in the last three games, including a score in each contest. Flacco has deployed a downfield passing attack that has elevated Cleveland’s offense, something the team has sorely needed; over the last three, the Browns are averaging just 55 rushing yards per game. Most importantly for Cleveland, Flacco has helped spark the team to a three-game winning streak, and the Browns have emerged as the top threat for the highest-seeded wild card in the AFC.
Jacoby Brissett
For the second week in a row, Washington Commanders backup Jacoby Brissett entered the game after starter Sam Howell got benched. And for the second week in a row, Brissett brought Washington back from the brink. Brissett was efficient against the New York Jets, completing 10 of 13 passes for 100 yards with a touchdown. He was essential in protecting the ball, making quick decisions and delivering accurate passes to move the chains. The Commanders scored 21 unanswered points in the second half to erase a 20-point deficit before falling 30-28.
In fact, this marked the second consecutive time that Washington began a game down 20-0. Going back to last week, Brissett is now 18-of-23 for 224 yards with three scores. Unfortunately for Washington (4-11), it lost both these games in what has become a lost season. But with his play, Brissett, 31, is proving that when he hits the market as a free agent at the end of this season, he deserves an extended look, at least as a backup.
LOSERS
Denver’s dream for the postseason implodes
The Denver Broncos were at home, facing a three-win team whose offense had scored 26 third-quarter points all season long. Denver proceeded to allow the Patriots to score 20 points in the third frame and then let quarterback Bailey Zappe lead a charge down the field in the final minute so that embattled kicker Chad Ryland could sink a 56-yarder to win the game 26-23. And now, the Broncos might be done.
Denver (7-8) left Sunday in the 11th seed in the AFC, in the very same spot it entered. The problem is that this was a game the Broncos could not afford to drop. According to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos held a 29% chance of making the postseason at the start of the game. A victory would’ve put them up to 42%; a loss dropped those chances to 5%. The Broncos have lost two in a row at the most crucial time of their season.
The entire AFC South
Not a single team in the AFC South won its respective game Sunday, though, in the grand scheme of things, it wasn’t debilitating for any squad. The Texans (8-7) began that day in the AFC’s No. 8 seed; they remained there after their loss to the Browns. The Colts (8-7) began the day at No. 7; they remained there as well after losing to the Falcons. The Jaguars (8-7) were No. 4 and … well, you get the picture.
Despite that, Sunday presented wasted opportunities. And no team lost more than Jacksonville, which two months ago had looked like it could compete for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Now the Jags have lost four in a row and are turning the ball over constantly — with an astonishing 10 giveaways in their last three. The good news is that Jacksonville finishes with an incredibly generous schedule, with games left against the Carolina Panthers (2-13) and Titans (5-10).
Vikings’ season in peril
One of three teams — joining the Browns and the Jets — to start four different players at quarterback this season, the Minnesota Vikings had nonetheless put themselves in position to make the postseason. The margin for error, however, was rather slim.
Minnesota (7-8) entered the day in the seventh seed in the NFC, the final playoff spot. With the 30-24 loss to the Detroit Lions, the Vikings swapped with the Seahawks (8-7), who toppled the Titans thanks to a last-minute touchdown. According to the NFL’s stats and analytics operation, the Vikings entered the day with a 53% chance to make the playoffs. After their loss against the Lions, that percentage plunged to 31%, marking the biggest drop of any team that played Sunday. Most concerning is that quarterback play. Nick Mullens (22-for-36 for 411 yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions) has shown he can put up yards. Protecting the ball is a different question. Minnesota closes with the Packers (7-8) and the Lions (11-4).
