The 2024 NFL MVP race hasn’t been the prettiest. Usual favorites like Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen have not played like their usual selves leaving voters to decide between the quarterback of America’s most divisive team, Mr. Irrelevant, a running back, and a wide receiver. Gross.
That said, the race is certainly a tight one. For the third week in a row, the odds-on favorite has flipped between the top two competitors, but with the San Francisco 49ers playing the way they are, the argument for Christian McCaffrey is also heating up after he scored three touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals.
Here’s how the latest NFL MVP odds look, courtesy of DraftKings.
NFL MVP odds: How the race looks before MNF
1. QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (-190)
Last week: 2nd (+200)
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After another strong performance against the Arizona Cardinals, the former seventh-round selection now leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (29), passer rating (119), yards per attempt (9.9), and is second in the NFL in passing yards (3795) and completion percentage (69.8 percent; minimum 150 pass attempts). His four passing touchdowns against Arizona were a sharp contrast to the struggles that Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott faced against the Buffalo Bills, tossing zero touchdowns and just 143 passing yards while completing only 54.2 percent of his passes.
The 49ers will have arguably their toughest test of the season next week as they take on the AFC’s top seed, the Baltimore Ravens, in Week 16.
2. QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (+450)
Last week: 1st (+160)
A tough outing for the Dallas Cowboys dropped Prescott way down the MVP leaderboards. The Buffalo Bills proved to be a worthy adversary, dominating the Cowboys to the tune of a 31-10 victory. For only the second time all season, Prescott threw for zero touchdowns.
The Cowboys continue to struggle against teams with a winning record. Dallas is now an abysmal 1-3 against those teams and have been outscored 114 to 76 in those games. With the Cowboys now potentially a full game back of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East ahead of Monday Night Football, Prescott’s MVP hopes hinge on disasters from the Eagles and 49ers. Failing to win your own division is often a death sentence in the MVP race.
The Cowboys have a tough road ahead, playing the Miami Dolphins on the road in Week 16 then traveling back home for a matchup with the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.
3. QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (+500)
Last week: 3rd (+550)
The Baltimore Ravens continued dominating opponents in Week 15, earning a solid 23-7 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars during Sunday Night Football. Jackson has not blown spectators away with his stats though, which has kept him on the back burner for MVP conversations this year. Jackson has just 17 touchdowns this season, ranking 17th in the NFL. When Jackson won his first MVP back in 2019, he led the NFL in passing touchdowns.
Jackson is also not rushing the ball as often as he used to. While that is great for his longevity as an NFL quarterback, it’s not great for his MVP odds. He’s actually recorded fewer rushing yards this season than he did last year in fewer games.
Thankfully, Jackson has an opportunity to make a case this weekend as the Ravens take on the San Francisco 49ers. A dominant performance against the MVP frontrunner would be a hard argument to counter come awards season. That said, it will be immensely difficult, and any other result could push Jackson out of the MVP conversation altogether. The 49ers opened up as 4.5-point favorites.
4. QB Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (+1000)
Last week: 4th (+650)
After consecutive, embarrassing losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, Hurts has fallen rather far down the MVP odds boards. Just two weeks ago, he was tied for the lead. Now, he’s got a mountain to climb, and not much opportunity to take noteworthy steps.
The Eagles have arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL the final four weeks. They don’t face a single team over .500 the rest of the season, and that means Hurts’ MVP odds are not in his hand. He must rely on late-season collapses from everyone ahead of him. It’s even harder to ask for considering two of the people in front of him play each other.
Ironically, what weighs Hurts’ MVP odds down the most though is his incredible 2022 season. Hurts was obviously remarkable that year and while he is still great, it’s hard for MVP voters to overcome the idea that he is not performing as well as he did last year and he didn’t win the MVP then either. It would take a valiant effort from Hurts and several more tush pushes for him to win the MVP at this point.
The Eagles face the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Luckily for their NFC East championship hopes, they face the Arizona Cardinals sandwiched by a pair of matchups against the New York Giants in the final three weeks of the regular season.
5. RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (+1200)
Last week: NR
Christian McCaffrey scored three touchdowns against the Arizona Cardinals this week. He is currently on pace for 24 touchdowns on the season. That’s unbelievable…but it’s not unheard of. McCaffrey would need 11 more touchdowns in just three games to match the all-time record for total touchdowns in a season, set by LaDainian Tomlinson back in 2006.
In order for a running back to win the MVP award, some sort of record needs to be broken, or at least come very close to being broken. The last three running backs to win the MVP award all followed this pattern. Adrian Peterson nearly broke the rushing yards record in 2012. LT broke the touchdown record in 2006. Shaun Alexander broke that same touchdown record the year prior for the award as well. McCaffrey won’t come close to any of these records. As great as he has been, he won’t win the award as long as the guy throwing him the ball is in the MVP conversation as well.
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