The NFL’s playoff picture is largely unresolved entering Week 15, with the San Francisco 49ers standing alone as the only team to clinch a postseason berth. Nowhere is the outlook murkier, though, than the race for the AFC wild-card berths.
While the Cleveland Browns are one game ahead of the competition for the first wild-card spot, there are six teams – the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills – all standing at 7-6. This weekend could help provide some separation, with the Steelers and Colts squaring off against one another Saturday.
With that in mind, we asked USA TODAY Sports NFL reporters and editors: Which two teams will emerge from the six-team logjam in the AFC to claim wild-card berths?
Their answers:
Broncos and Bills
I’m gonna ride with experience here. The Denver Broncos have won six of seven with opportunistic and suffocating defense, while QB Russell Wilson has triggered an efficient offense that’s been getting big plays when needed. And with battle-tested HC Sean Payton finally seeming settled in his new surroundings, a big finish could be in play for a club that will see the Patriots, Raiders and Chargers down the stretch. And then there are the Buffalo Bills. They have the best offensive player – QB Josh Allen – among this cluster of teams and, arguably, in the entire league. He’s accounted for a league-best 35 touchdowns, and this offense has taken a step up in class on the watch of new coordinator Joe Brady. If a decimated defense can hold up sufficiently to maybe even enable this team to take out the Cowboys at home Sunday, it’s even well within the bounds of reality that Buffalo could retain its AFC East crown.
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– Nate Davis
Mea culpa, mea culpa. Earlier this season, I buried the Broncos, as their 1-5 start compelled me to believe that the Russell Wilson-Sean Payton marriage would never work. Turns out, they just needed some time to familiarize themselves with one another and create a path that led to victories in six of their last seven games. Following a Saturday night matchup against the Detroit Lions this week, the finish the season with three games against three backups, hosting the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers before the season finale at Las Vegas.
As for the Bills, this is a prime example of peaking when it matters most. They gave the Eagles their best shot and took down the Chiefs. Josh Allen is in full “put the team on my back” mode, and Buffalo may very well have its sight set on another AFC East crown rather than a Wild Card berth.
Mainly, however, the Bills and Broncos have their starting quarterbacks, who have displayed MVP-caliber qualities at various points in their careers, healthy. Aside from C.J. Stroud, in concussion protocol this week, the rest of the logjam has backups taking snaps.
– Chris Bumbaca
Broncos and Steelers
Of course, you can ask me again next week. Yet I’m feeling the flow of Sean Payton’s team and its ability to grow through such a shaky beginning to this season. This is not September’s Denver — and shoot, the Broncos might even beat the Jets about now — as the defense has been repaired and Courtland Sutton keeps making amazing catches. I’m thinking the schedule is favorable enough that the Broncos get to 10 wins. At least. As for the Steelers, it’s going to take an ‘Immaculate Recovery’ — and I’m not just talking about Kenny Pickett’s ankle as they’ve squandered the chance to control their own destiny. Pittsburgh needs a serious spark from its defense as the ticket. And they would be helped tremendously if the Ravens have locked down the No. 1 seed by the time they see them in Week 18. But then again, everybody will need some help from somewhere. Can you say logjam of 9-8 teams? I see the ‘NFL tiebreaker formula’ as a trending thing.
– Jarrett Bell
Bills and Texans
The Bills and Texans will emerge and claim the AFC’s final two wild card-spots, joining the Browns as the conference’s three wild-card teams. Buffalo’s emotional win over the Chiefs will propel them going forward. I think Buffalo has a really good chance of beating the Cowboys and finishing the regular season on a five-game winning streak. The Cowboys and Dolphins are the only two teams remaining on Buffalo’s schedule above .500. The Texans are in more of a precarious position because C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol and Will Anderson is nursing a high-ankle sprain. But Stroud and Anderson’s injuries aren’t believed to keep them out multiple games. NFL coach of the year favorite DeMeco Ryans is going to have his team prepared to close out the season strong versus the Titans, and possibly a win-and-get-in game against the Colts in Week 18.
– Tyler Dragon
Yes, Buffalo is currently back in the pack when it comes to tiebreakers, and Josh Allen and Co. still have to square off against the Dallas Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins in the final four weeks. Still, there’s ample reason to believe in a team that just triumphed at Arrowhead Stadium and nearly took down the Eagles on the road as well. If running back James Cook and a surging defense can continue to give Allen the support he needs, the postseason should be within reach. The Texans, meanwhile, have an iffier outlook as they come off a 30-6 loss to the New York Jets with C.J. Stroud in the concussion protocol. But the schedule sets up favorably for Houston, with two matchups against the Tennessee Titans sandwiching a home game against the Cleveland Browns before a season-ending tilt against the Colts. Nabbing three wins should be enough to propel the Texans to their first playoff appearance since 2019.
– Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz
