There are three main reasons why Georgia could move ahead of Ohio State in the second College Football Playoff rankings of the season, set to be released on Tuesday evening.
The first is Georgia’s 30-21 win against Missouri, which was ranked No. 12 in the debut rankings and will remain inside the Top 25 despite the loss. The Bulldogs now have four wins against SEC competition currently holding a winning record.
The second is Ohio State’s 35-16 win at Rutgers. The Buckeyes trailed 9-7 at halftime and were in danger of falling behind by two possessions in the third quarter before a 93-yard interception return gave them the lead for good. While Rutgers is already bowl eligible and will likely finish fourth in the Big Ten East, that Ohio State was losing heading into the second half could provide critics on and off the selection committee with unnecessary ammunition.
And third, Notre Dame’s loss to Clemson partially devalues the Buckeyes’ non-conference win against the Fighting Irish. Even if that remains a Top 25 victory in the eyes of the committee, the win no longer represents a unique bonus on Ohio State’s postseason résumé.
Here’s how the top 10 should look on Tuesday night:
1. Georgia (9-0)
In two games without tight end Brock Bowers, quarterback Carson Beck has completed 40 of 60 throws for 569 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. It’s the defense that has struggled at times these past two weeks, giving up a season-worst 5.9 yards per play against Florida and allowing Missouri to become just the fourth opponent since 2019 to run for more than 150 yards.
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2. Ohio State (9-0)
Slow starts similar to the one against Rutgers haven’t cost Ohio State, which continues to look sluggish out of the gate but has outscored opponents 155-48 in the second half. A year ago, the Buckeyes were trailing or tied at halftime four times and won every game.
3. Michigan (9-0)
The selection committee sent a very clear message about Michigan one week ago by calling the ongoing sign-stealing issue ‘an NCAA issue,’ not one for the playoff. That means the committee will keep putting the Wolverines in the top four barring any concrete developments from any investigation into the scandal. Look for Michigan to stick at No. 3 after blowing out Purdue.
4. Florida State (9-0)
As with the relationship between the Buckeyes and Irish, Florida State’s credentials will be hurt by LSU’s loss to Alabama, the Tigers’ third on the year. There’s also going to an argument for bumping up Washington after its win against Southern California, but how will the committee look at that result?
5. Washington (9-0)
The committee questioned Washington’s credibility after unimpressive wins against Arizona State and Stanford. There doesn’t seem to be too much from the win against USC that will change that. The Trojans’ defense was a nightmare, of course, but the offense managed five touchdown drives of at least 75 yards and gained 515 yards altogether on 8.2 yards per snap. Even if the Seminoles weren’t dominant in a 24-7 win against Pittsburgh, there doesn’t seem to be enough here for the Huskies to get a one-spot bump into the top four.
6. Oregon (8-1)
The list of one-loss teams shouldn’t change from a week ago until we get to Oklahoma, which will get bounced down from No. 9 after losing to Oklahoma State. Trailing 14-10 after the first quarter against California, the Ducks pulled away from there for a 63-19 win thanks to a combined six touchdowns from quarterback Bo Nix.
7. Texas (8-1)
The Longhorns’ overtime win against Kansas State will draw praise from the committee even as it dumps the Wildcats from the Top 25. The most impressive part was how Texas owned the line of scrimmage against one of the most physical teams in the Power Five, running for 230 yards and allowing just 33, the Wildcats’ fewest in a game since the 2015 Alamo Bowl.
8. Alabama (8-1)
Alabama continues to be hamstrung by the head-to-head loss at home to Texas, which the committee will continue to honor through the end of November as long as the two teams have the same record. But the Crimson Tide would move ahead of the Longhorns by winning out in November and beating Georgia in the SEC championship game to finish 12-1.
9. Mississippi (8-1)
An earlier loss to Alabama cost Ole Miss the SEC West and any real chance at the playoff but a win on Saturday against Georgia would at least secure the Rebels a New Year’s Six bid for the second time under Lane Kiffin. (Assuming they take care of Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State.) Ole Miss is 10-32-1 against the Bulldogs but did win the last game in this series (45-14 in 2016).
10. Penn State (8-1)
Oklahoma’s loss and a convincing win against Maryland will push Penn State into the top 10. How much can the Nittany Lions climb? It all hinges on Saturday’s matchup with Michigan and the results from the final two weeks of the regular season. Beating the Wolverines could get Penn State into the top seven in next Tuesday’s rankings.
