Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

Stocks

The Worst Month of the Year is Behind Us — Here’s What We Need to See for Better Times Ahead

The S&P 500 posted its worst month so far, with a 4.9% decline that’s pushed the year-to-date returns for this benchmark index almost in half. With elevated interest rates that may be with us for a while, investors have pushed stocks lower, in a move that has over 10% of large-cap stocks well into oversold territory. We’re talking about names such as McDonalds (MCD), Boeing (BA) and Blackrock (BLK), to name just a few.

The current downtrend in the markets was signaled by a close below the 50-day moving average on heavy volume earlier this month, which was coupled by a move of the RSI and Stochastics  into negative territory. Further weakness followed, with news that the Fed is anticipating an elevated rate scenario for longer than anticipated, pushing stocks even lower.

DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX

Above is a daily chart of the S&P 500, and highlighted are the key characteristics that need to take place before we’re back in an uptrend. To begin, we’ll need this index to close above its 50-day moving average, coupled with a positive RSI and Stochastics. While this may appear far from possibly taking place, a multi-day rally in the mega-cap names such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL), which led us out of the March pullback, would go a very long way in sparking a reversal.

Outside of price action on the chart of the S&P 500, we’ll need to see interest rates trend lower from their current position. During the mid-March downtrend reversal, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed below the widely-watched 4% level after a lower-than-expected CPI report hinted at decelerating inflation. A similar drop in interest rates will be a key needed development to get investors back into these markets.

While we’re on the lookout for the markets to trend higher going into year-end, near term, we may see further weakness heading into next week. While the major indexes rebounded from midweek lows, a continuation rally into Friday was reversed, in a signal that the short-lived rally attempt had ended. The reversal followed news that a federal government shutdown is increasingly likely on Sunday after House Speaker McCarthy’s funding proposal was rejected.

With investor sentiment remaining negative over the near term, this is an ideal time to build out your watchlist for when we return to a more bullish period. For those who’d like to have immediate access to my highly curated watchlist, as well as be alerted to when it’s safe to get back into the markets, use this link here.

Warmly,

Mary Ellen McGonagle

    You May Also Like

    Politics

    When George Santos mentioned his family during his congressional campaign, the New York Republican often reflected on the work ethic and strength of his...

    Business

    Two of Sam Bankman-Fried’s top business partners — a co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX and the former CEO of the hedge fund Alameda...

    Sports

    Kicker Alejandro Mata is following former Tigers coach Deion Sanders to Colorado. ‘Thankful to be committed and signed to the University of Colorado,’ Marta wrote on...

    Stocks

    SPX Monitoring Purposes: Sold long SPX 1/27/23 at 4070.56 = Gain 6.51%; Long on 12/20/22 at 3821.62. The top window is the cumulative GDX...

    Disclaimer: SecretCharts.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2024 SecretCharts.com | All Rights Reserved